1, 8, 11, 16 ... and 3? More details over at the Politicker.
[...]edited by: Bob DeMaura,
New Hampshire Editor
1, 8, 11, 16 ... and 3? More details over at the Politicker.
[...]What are the Republicans' chances at winning back the State Senate?
It all depends on 2-6-7-18. Read more at Politicker NH.
Zzzzzz... even by Graniteprof's admittedly lax standards, it's been a long layoff.
Sorry, folks, we had to attend to our day job -- never mind staying up every Tuesday night since January.
Speaking of which -- watching the Democratic nominee in St. Paul tonight, I'm glad to see the last [...]
When Barack Obama fell short of defeating Hillary Clinton last week, what first came to mind was Bill Bradley: a reform-minded "agent of change" who fell four points short of Al Gore in New Hampshire, and whose campaign plummeted once he left the friendly confines of the Granite State.
What [...]
Clinton not only has carried Manchester, but the collar towns of Bedford, Hooksett, Candia, Auburn, Londonderry.
Bedford, one of the wealthiest towns in the state, is an especially noteworthy win for Clinton.
Clinton is poised to become the second Comeback Kid.
[...]Obama has carried Rye, an elite seacoast town.
[...]In contrast, Clinton has carried Milford, a more middle-class area than Amherst.
SHe also has carried exurban areas such as Candia, Auburn, and Chester in western Rockingham Co.
Obama carried the Hillsborough Co. town of Peterborough decisively, as well as the town of Amherst.
Both of these are areas of elite, upscale Democrats.
The Upper Valley is starting to come in.
Obama has carried Plainfield and Grantham, both in the vicinity of Dartmouth College and Hanover.
Clinton also has carried Hooksett and Candia, two towns next to nearby Manchester.
Not Volvo liberal towns -- much more middle class.
Chalk up two more working-class cities for Hillary Clinton: Rochester and Somersworth.
Barack Obama may win tonight yet, but it does not look as overwhelming as the conventional wisdom thought.
Hillary Clinton's vote is holding up remarkably well so far.
She has carried the city of Dover. Also has a significant lead so far in Manchester.
She also is close in the city of Portsmouth.
It ain't over yet.
[...]If Mitt Romney pulls this out at the last minute, it's going to happen in the Interstate 93 corridor, home of many Massachusetts transplants. Draw a line from Manchester, down I-93 to the Mass border, this should be Romney territory: Manchester, Bedford, Merrimack, Litchfield, Londonderry. And toward the border, keep [...]
A quick hit on what to watch in New Hampshire tonight before I dash to Concord for New Hampshire Public Radio's live coverage.
On the Democratic side:
Early on, watch the cities of Manchester and Keene.
Manchester still has significant pockets of working-class voters, and is a good bellwether for [...]
To date, Barack Obama leads all Democrats in ad spending on WMUR-TV.
Obama: $2.1 million
Hillary Clinton: $1.65 million
John Edwards: $1.2 million
Bill Richardson: $700,000
[...]In sum, Mitt Romney has outspent the entire Republican field of competitors by $1.4 million on WMUR. Here's a summary of the ad spending of other Republicans:
John McCain: $1.1 million
Rudy Giuliani: Just under $1 million
Ron Paul: $270,000
Mike Huckabee: $160,000
While listening to the Iowa returns come in, here are some figures on the candidates' ad buys on WMUR-TV, New Hampshire's only statewide commercial station:
These figures represent the candidates' complete ad buys on WMUR, from their first ad buy to last (barring any last-minute buys; numbers were checked yesterday [...]
Good evening --
Here are some aggregate numbers on ad spending at WMUR-TV, New Hampshire's only statewide commercial television station:
By primary eve, Democratic presidential candidates will have spent $6.3 million during this campaign season. (Corrected from earlier post.)
Republicans will have spent $6.4 million.
That's a total [...]
Happy 2008!
The Los Angeles Times offers a good view of the alleged battle for New Hampshire's independents between Barack Obama and John McCain. Unfortunately, they stuck it with a misleading headline:
McCain losing votes to Obama in N. H.
What's wrong with this head? Verb tense. The story [...]
The Boston Globe piles on top of Mitt Romney today -- "Credibility pounded, Romney wrestles uncertainties," reads the front-page headline. Certainly the ride for the former Massachusetts governor has been anything but smooth the last few weeks.
So why are his "futures" the most expensive among all the Republican candidates [...]
Fresh out of grading finals, GRANITEPROF tried twice today to catch John McCain in full town-hall action mode.
At the Merrimack VFW, the line was headed out the door, so we opted for a Miami dog at the lunch place next door.
The second time was the charm: an early [...]
Due to final grading and holiday celebrating, GRANITEPROF has been on hiatus. We'll be back in the next few days, blogging full-tilt during the week before the New Hampshire primary. Buckle up!
[...]As of last week, only Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and John Edwards were up on the air at WMUR-TV, New Hampshire's only statewide commercial station.
Bill Richardson, who had spots up from October 22 to December 4, was off the air last week. (If anyone has seen Richardson ads this [...]
After averaging $90,000 weekly ad buys at WMUR-TV most of last month, Hillary Clinton's campaign significantly boosted the number of spots it purchased at New Hampshire's only statewide commercial station.
Here are the ad buys post-Thanksgiving:
November 26 - December 2: $122,410 for 141 ads
December 3-16 (a two-week period): [...]
A follow-up on the Carol Shea-Porter endorsement and what it means for Barack Obama:
Wouldn't it be surprising if most of her ardent, progressive grass-roots supporters weren't already behind Obama? Regardless of Shea-Porter's endorsement decision? Perhaps some might consider John Edwards. A few might even gravitate toward Bill Richardson or [...]
Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter's endorsement of Barack Obama reminded me of an earlier post that I wrote shortly before Shea-Porter's lopsided upset of Jim Craig in the 2006 Democratic primary.
It raises an interesting set of Primary Day questions to ponder for Obama (and for Shea-Porter and her much-vaunted grass [...]
For the last two weeks, John McCain's campaign has spent about $90,000 weekly on WMUR-TV for a mix of 30-second and 60-second spots:
November 26 - December 2: $91,065
December 3-10: $86,880
On WMUR, McCain is being outspent by Rudy Giuliani almost 2-1.
It's worth noting, though, that only one of these [...]
While not at Mitt Romney's level, Rudy Giuliani's campaign is also writing six-figure checks to WMUR on a weekly basis:
November 28 - December 4: $148,760 for 168 thirty-second spots.
December 5-11: $173,775 for 189 thirty-second spots.
[...]Last month the Ron Paul campaign stated that it had bought $1.1 million in television advertising time for the remainder of the campaign in New Hampshire.
To date, the Paul campaign has spent very little of that TV ad budget on WMUR-TV, New Hampshire's only statewide commercial television station.
From [...]
After breaking the $200,000 / week mark last month, Mitt Romney's campaign is now spending a cool quarter-million a week at WMUR, New Hampshire's only statewide commercial television station.
November 28-December 4: $193,850 for 184 thirty-second spots
December 5-11: $252,975 for 197 thirty-second spots.
[...]Mike Huckabee will go up on WMUR-TV for the first time next week.
From December 10-16, the Huckabee campaign has bought 53 spots, at a cost of $36,600.
[...]If you're coming here from the Boston Globe website, welcome. Please note that the Globe did not transcribe correctly the numbers from this post. Democratic presidential candidates actually have outspent Republicans:
Cumulative ad buys on WMUR-TV by presidential candidates, from the beginning of the calendar year through Thanksgiving week:
Democratic presidential [...]
Last week I gave a presentation to the fine folks at The New Hampshire Forum on the Future, offering my current thoughts on the logic of nomination momentum once Iowans start voting on January 3.
Chronically unable to resist the Sports Metaphor, I put the candidates into brackets, much [...]
Mitt Romney's dominance of the WMUR airwaves surely will lessen a bit in the next six weeks (especially with Rudy up and running). But it's worth pointing out how much Romney has monopolized the eyeballs of GOP voters since he went on the air on New Hampshire's only statewide commercial [...]
Cumulative ad buys on WMUR-TV by presidential candidates, from the beginning of the calendar year through Thanksgiving week:
Democratic presidential candidates: $3,479,140
Republican presidential candidates: $3,178,770
Correction on the GOP numbers: Graniteprof double-counted one Ron Paul buy, so the cumulative number actually is $3,160,170.
[...]As one might expect from a well-funded challenger aiming to overtake the frontrunner, Barack Obama led all Democrats in ad spending on WMUR-TV (New Hampshire's only statewide television station)
through the Thanksgiving holidays.
From October 30 through November 26, Obama spent just over half a million dollars ($505,595, to be [...]
Some Thanksgiving leftovers:
Here are John McCain's November ad buys on WMUR-TV, New Hampshire's only statewide station, before the holidays:
October 29 to November 11: $131,650 for 152 thirty-second ads.
November 12-18: $101,825 for 118 spots.
November 19-25 (Thanksgiving week): $41,000 for 53 ads.
Rudy Giuliani's long-awaited New Hampshire ad buy was a sizable one on WMUR-TV:
November 15-20 / $144,995 for 52 one-minute ads and 67 thirty-second ads.
[...]November has been a good month for Mitt Romney in New Hampshire, as the latest polls indicate. After falling as low as 23 percent in late September, Romney has polled over 30 percent in the last five public Granite State polls.
It's worth pointing out how much the Romney [...]
Where is Ron Paul spending that $8.8 million he has raised this quarter? Not on WMUR-TV, the only statewide television station in New Hampshire. Thus far the Paul campaign's ad buy there has been rather meager.
From October 29 (when he went up on the air) through November 18, [...]
While Hillary Clinton's support has dropped among the "Volvo Democrats" (as Ron Brownstein would call them), she remains miles ahead of Barack Obama among working-class members of the party.
In the latest Boston Globe / University of New Hampshire poll, Clinton leads Obama among likely voters with a high [...]
Pollster.com has an excellent post on signs of erosion in Hillary Clinton's support among college-educated Democrats, in both the Boston Globe / University of New Hampshire and Marist College polls.
In the Boston Globe / UNH poll, respondents were asked a series of questions about the candidates and [...]
When it comes to understanding primary voter demographics, Ron Brownstein is always mandatory reading. (His work on the Gore-Bradley race in 2000 was a big influence on my thinking, and helped to inspire my book on the New Hampshire primary.)
Brownstein's recent National Journal article, on how Hillary [...]
From the shameless speculation department: Four years ago, at least one prominent Democratic primary campaign practiced its get-out-the-vote efforts during the Manchester mayoral race.
Tomorrow, when Democrat Tom Donovan tries to unseat GOP Mayor Frank Guinta, how many Democratic presidential primary campaigns will be helping him out as a test [...]
Bill Richardson is dropping a mail piece in Iowa, Politico reports. The campaign is sending out a quite similar piece (GRANITEPROF has not read the text very closely; could be the same piece) to New Hampshire households. After a "quiet phase" in early fall, Richardson is upgrading his profile [...]
In Manchester's second ward, to be exact.
Rumors that volunteers are passing out chocolate gold coins to trick-or-treaters are, as yet, unconfirmed.
[...]On the Democratic side, Bill Richardson is back on the air at WMUR for the first time this month:
Period of ad buy: Oct. 22-28
Number of spots: 31 (all 60 seconds long)
Cost: $50,000
To date, Mitt Romney's campaign ad buys on WMUR-TV alone total more than $1.7 million this year.
By the end of this month, he will have run 1,700 spots on the station -- that's five or six a day, every day of the calendar year.
[...]The latest ad buy for John McCain at WMUR-TV:
Oct. 26 to Nov. 4, $72,700 for 99 spots.
This buy includes McCain's "Woodstock" ad, although I am not sure how many times that particular spot will run in the next week.
[...]Ron Paul goes up on WMUR-TV next week with a modest ad buy: $18,600 for 22 spots.
[...]Mitt Romney continues to outspend every other presidential candidate, Democrat and Republican, on WMUR-TV. His latest buy is the highest to date for 2007.
Dates: October 24-30
Total spending: $158,825
Number of spots: 140
Ron Paul Nation is smiling this morning: A new Saint Anselm College poll (via the Union Leader) puts Texas Congressman Ron Paul in fourth place in the New Hampshire Republican primary.
As usual, Graniteprof is a prophet with feet of clay. What to do when idle July [...]
Here is the last date these Democrats were up on the air at WMUR-TV:
Chris Dodd July 1
John Edwards July 29
Bill Richardson [...]
Among the Democrats, only Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have bought ads on WMUR this month. Their totals:
Obama $203,825 for 166 spots
Clinton $117,970 for 136 spots
[...]Another week, another big ad buy for Mitt Romney.
For 134 spots during the week of Oct. 10-16, his campaign spent almost $134,000 at WMUR-TV. All told, Romney has handed over more than a quarter-million dollars to WMUR in October alone. At this rate, Romney will spend $1.5 million on [...]
Here is a complete list of Republican presidential candidates on the air this week on WMUR-TV:
John McCain, $77,675 for 118 spots, September 30 to October 6
Mitt Romney, $128,675 for 130 spots (including seven 60-second spots), Oct. 3-9
Mitt Romney's latest ad buy (October 3-9) on WMUR is his first to exceed $100,000 in a single week. The buy totals $128,675. This is on top of a $80,ooo buy the previous week.
[...]According to First Read, Texas congressman Ron Paul now has $5.3 million on hand after raising $5 million in the third quarter.
Let's say he decides to take about 20 percent of that, $1.1. million, over to WMUR-TV, and buy advertising for the last 12 weeks before the [...]
On the front of today's Union Leader, publisher Joe McQuaid makes a public display of editorial affection for John McCain:
U.S. Sen. John McCain has said the politically unspeakable again. Good for him.
Sen. McCain said this nation was founded on Christian principles. This alone caused millions of liberals and squishy teachers [...]
Here's a look back at my colleague Andrew Smith's polling of the Sununu-Shaheen race in 2002. In that election cycle, Jeanne Shaheen never achieved 50 percent support in a UNH poll.
In the latest UNH poll, Shaheen already has cracked the 50 percent ceiling, enjoying 54 percent support. [...]
Here's a look back at my colleague Andrew Smith's polling of the Sununu-Shaheen race in 2002. In that election cycle, Jeanne Shaheen never achieved 50 percent support in a UNH poll.
In the latest UNH poll, Shaheen already has cracked the 50 percent ceiling, enjoying 54 percent support. [...]
Now at 5 percent in New Hampshire, according to the latest Los Angeles Times / Bloomberg poll.
That's one point out of fifth place (held by Mike Huckabee with 6 percent). Paul now holds a greater share of the primary vote than Sam Brownback, Duncan Hunter and Tom Tancredo, [...]
Now at 5 percent in New Hampshire, according to the latest Los Angeles Times / Bloomberg poll.
That's one point out of fifth place (held by Mike Huckabee with 6 percent). Paul now holds a greater share of the primary vote than Sam Brownback, Duncan Hunter and Tom Tancredo, [...]
Let's review the facts:
(1) Rudy Giuliani has not spent a dime on television advertisements in New Hampshire. As of June, Mitt Romney had run almost 800.
(2) Consensus CW tells us that Romney's Granite State ground organization got to work much harder, much earlier than Giuliani's.
(3) And [...]
Let's review the facts:
(1) Rudy Giuliani has not spent a dime on television advertisements in New Hampshire. As of June, Mitt Romney had run almost 800.
(2) Consensus CW tells us that Romney's Granite State ground organization got to work much harder, much earlier than Giuliani's.
(3) And [...]
OK, let's just pick up like I did not drop the ball for a month --
Statewide, Republicans have a net gain of 2,849 new voters on the registration lists since November 2002 (this overall gain includes losses in registered voters as well as additions).
Most of that slight increase [...]
OK, let's just pick up like I did not drop the ball for a month --
Statewide, Republicans have a net gain of 2,849 new voters on the registration lists since November 2002 (this overall gain includes losses in registered voters as well as additions).
Most of that slight increase [...]
Where are these 45,000 newly registered Democrats who have joined the rolls since November 2002?
An examination of the Secretary of State's records indicates, unsurprisingly, that nearly half of new Democrats hail from the two largest counties in the state, Hillsborough (roughly 239,000 voters, or 28 percent of the [...]
Where are these 45,000 newly registered Democrats who have joined the rolls since November 2002?
An examination of the Secretary of State's records indicates, unsurprisingly, that nearly half of new Democrats hail from the two largest counties in the state, Hillsborough (roughly 239,000 voters, or 28 percent of the [...]
Reid Wilson at Real Clear Politics offers a comprehensive summary of exactly how much trouble Senator John Sununu faces in his re-election bid next year.
One missing fact that's worth pointing out is the trend in New Hampshire's voter registration numbers.
Five years ago, Republican registrants outnumbered registered [...]
Reid Wilson at Real Clear Politics offers a comprehensive summary of exactly how much trouble Senator John Sununu faces in his re-election bid next year.
One missing fact that's worth pointing out is the trend in New Hampshire's voter registration numbers.
Five years ago, Republican registrants outnumbered registered [...]
The importance of endorsements in the New Hampshire primary is chronically overrated.
But as far as endorsements go, NH-02 Congressman Paul Hodes's announcement of support for Barack Obama is a big catch. That's because the Second District, most of which lies far beyond the state's media-heavy southern tier, is [...]
The importance of endorsements in the New Hampshire primary is chronically overrated.
But as far as endorsements go, NH-02 Congressman Paul Hodes's announcement of support for Barack Obama is a big catch. That's because the Second District, most of which lies far beyond the state's media-heavy southern tier, is [...]
A new ABC News-Washington Post national poll shows Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton with a commanding lead among the most fervently anti-war Democrats of her party. Clinton enjoys a 22 percent lead (51-29) over Barack Obama among those who wish for a complete, immediate withdrawal of U. S. forces from [...]
A new ABC News-Washington Post national poll shows Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton with a commanding lead among the most fervently anti-war Democrats of her party. Clinton enjoys a 22 percent lead (51-29) over Barack Obama among those who wish for a complete, immediate withdrawal of U. S. forces from [...]
Via Jonathan Martin at The Politico, John McCain's campaign lays out its issue agenda for New Hampshire in a strategy memo. The top issues he will stress:
Can McCain win back some [...]
Via Jonathan Martin at The Politico, John McCain's campaign lays out its issue agenda for New Hampshire in a strategy memo. The top issues he will stress:
Can McCain win back some [...]
Will New Hampshire voters participating in the Republican presidential primary be significantly more conservative than in 2000? Current conventional wisdom says they will because most undeclared voters intend to participate in the Democratic primary next year, according to survey data.
So far, according to the CNN /WMUR 2008 NH [...]
Just wondering: Now that Texas congressman Ron Paul has more than $2 million in the bank (that's double what Brownback, Huckabee and Tommy Thompson have on hand, combined) and sits in a six-way tie for fifth in New Hampshire, can we start wondering (just for fun) about what [...]
Happy Fourth!
Politico reports that John McCain's presidential campaign "is clinging to life," chiefly because "there is scant evidence that nearly seven years of effort since his failed 2000 bid to cultivate and reassure" the party's conservative activist base "have paid any dividends."
A look at the CNN/WMUR 2008 [...]
While we wait for Cosmo to inform us of the safe distance for trailing a Romneymobile, here is a webpage to bookmark: the invaluable Pollster.com's compilation of New Hampshire primary polls, both Democratic and Republican.
Exactly when did Democratic presidential primaries get so, um, boring? Flat lines [...]
Idle speculation for a hot summer day:
Some have declared the presidential campaign of New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg dead even before it has begun, e.g. the mysterious Thurlow Weed pegs Hizzoner as a modern-day John Anderson, with an upside at no more than 6 percent.
Anderson, a [...]
For Hillary Clinton, no news is the best news for her New Hampshire campaign. As for any frontrunner, boring is good. And so far, compared to Al Gore's and John Kerry's stumbles out of the gate here in 1999 and 2003, Clinton has had a remarkably smooth ride to date. [...]
Faithful readers of GRANITEPROF have seen me refer occasionally to the "Stat Guy," Adam Schibley, who has been my research assistant for the past several years. His number-crunching abilities have enriched this blog a good deal, and I wish him well as he moves on to law school.
As I [...]
Democrat David Scannell, formerly an assistant to Manchester Mayor Bob Baines, won yesterday's special election for state representative in the city's Ward 2 with 58 percent of the vote.
It's getting tough to remember a time when New Hampshire Republicans actually won a special election to the House. Evan Carlson [...]
Voters (a few, anyway) are headed to the polls today in Manchester's Ward 2, which is replacing one of its state representatives.
The Republican candidate, Michael McGrath, distributed a campaign "questionnaire" to voters. Here are some of the highlights:
Just wondering: How many Democrats on the Seacoast were surprised this morning to hear that their congresswoman might vote today to fund the Iraq war without a deadline for U. S. troop withdrawals?
After noting Congressman Paul Hodes's firm opposition to the supplemental Iraq war funding bill, John DiStaso [...]
My book on the New Hampshire primary, Stormy Weather, is now up on Google Books.
Maybe this means Google will send me stock options someday soon?
Or you can just buy it from Amazon for $2.92, not including postage and handling.
Imagine! Hillary could buy half [...]
The defeat of Socialist Segolene Royal in Sunday's French presidential elections got some play on the inside pages of the Washington Post, for what it could possibly mean for Hillary Clinton's candidacy:
There was a time when advisers to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) looked abroad for proof that [...]
University of New Hampshire pollster Andy Smith's latest CNN / WMUR survey indicates some good news for John McCain as he prepares to shock the world and announce his bid for the presidency tomorrow in Portsmouth and Manchester.
Yes, McCain remains at the top of the Republican field [...]
Caught John McCain at his town hall meeting yesterday afternoon in Exeter.
Here is his stump speech in 20 words:
9/11 changed everything
Stay the course in Iraq
Cut pork from the budget
Climate change is serious, let's do something.
p.s. He also attributed a significant amount of his [...]
Is Ed Muskie's ghost haunting Hillary Clinton? Harold Meyerson made this claim in yesterday's Washington Post:
As the ancient or merely studious among us will recall, the Democratic senator from Maine, who'd been Hubert Humphrey's running mate in 1968, entered his party's presidential contest in 1972 as the front-runner. His prospects were [...]
Jon Chait of The New Republic (subscriber only), via Kausfiles, argues that on the campaign trail, Hillary Clinton will suffer in comparison to superior orators Barack Obama and John Edwards:
The question is: Which candidate is more likely to benefit from endless hours of speechifying, hand-shaking, and town hall [...]
Let's start off 2007 where we left off in the old year, reviewing the straight-ticket vote in last November's elections.
Here are the towns that cast the highest percentage of straight-ticket votes for the GOP in 2006:
1. Chatham, 33 percent straight-ticket Republican, or one out of every three voters
[...]
GRANITEPROF is taking off for the Christmas holidays. Best wishes for the New Year, and we'll see you in 2007.
[...]My friend Henry Olsen, who wrote some posts here during the 2004 election season, sends the following, based on the new Census figures:
"I took the liberty of calculating the estimated median Congressional district size for the 2010 reapportionment (712,000 on a national population of 310 million) and then [...]
