Items by Robert

• Welfare vs Social Insurance in the USA

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 44
  Robert Waldmann
  
  Among experts, there is a widespread view that people in the USA support social insurance an oppose welfare. It is a fact that they support social security old age and disability pensions and hated AFDC. It is suspected that describing social security as a pension plan with [...]
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  Posted: November 28, 2009, 9:41am EST
  by Robert

• Photographing Phantom Invisible Bond Vigilantes

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 36
  Robert Waldmann
  
  A specter is haunting Paul Krugman -- it is the specter of apparently sophisticated forecasters who predict a huge spike in US long term bond rates in the near future. He notes that most investors can't believe this or rates would already be high.' [...]
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  Posted: November 22, 2009, 8:02am EST
  by Robert

• The Phantom Menace

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 4
  Robert Waldmann
  
  The one by Paul Krugman is a must read.
  
  what I hear is that officials don’t trust the demand for long-term government debt, because they see it as driven by a “carry trade”: financial players borrowing cheap money short-term, and using it to buy long-term [...]
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  Posted: November 21, 2009, 1:27am EST
  by Robert

• Quantitative Easing

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 12
  Robert Waldmann
  
  Can the Fed do any more to stimulate the economy ? The question is back. The answer is only by making credible promises about the fairly distant future. My view is that this means no. I review the issue after the jump.
  
  
  
  
  
  [...]
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  Posted: November 21, 2009, 12:25am EST
  by Robert

• More on the CMS Report

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 1
  Robert Waldmann+
  
  I paraphrase Kevin Drum
  
  My post last night about the CMS report on healthcare reform ... [was not] a model of clarity. For more, see Ezra Klein here and Jon Gruber here. Combined with ... [Drum's original] post and [...]
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  Posted: November 16, 2009, 9:57pm EST
  by Robert

• Health Care Reform and Caregivers Refusing Medicare Patients

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert goes out on a limb and guesses that Lori Montgomery fell for (or is pushing) Republican spin in this article in the Washington Post
  Report: Bill would reduce senior care
  Medicare cuts approved by House may affect access to providers
  
  
  
  A plan to slash more [...]
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  Posted: November 15, 2009, 5:58pm EST
  by Robert

• Employment Policy

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  Larry Summers, who is very very good at provoking debate, said
  “It may be desirable to have a given amount of work shared among more people. But that’s not as desirable as expanding the total amount of work.”
  
  Paul Krugman responds here
  [...]
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  Posted: November 13, 2009, 9:22pm EST
  by Robert

• Pigou Club

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  is joining The Pigou Club and hopes for at least some discussion in comments.
  
  That is all. [...]
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  Posted: November 09, 2009, 5:29pm EST
  by Robert

• Storing Energy Bleg

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  I am eager to learn from this blog again. A problem with solar and wind generation of electricity is the sun isn't always shining and the wind isn't always blowing and it is costly to store energy. I don't see why energy can't be stored using hydroelectric [...]
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  Posted: November 06, 2009, 7:56pm EST
  by Robert

• Ultra Amateurish Thoughts on “Optimal Fiscal Policy in a Liquidity Trap (Ultra-Wonkish)”

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Paul Krugman argued that optimal fiscal policy in a liquidity trap targets unemployment equal to the non accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU). He uses a model with Ricardian equivalence. This means that the public debt does not affect consumption.
  
  When he wrote his post, I said [...]
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  Posted: November 02, 2009, 10:42pm EST
  by Robert

• Vague Thoughts on The Theory of the Firm, the Business Cycle and Kurt Vonnegut

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  Don't say you weren't warned. I am trying to understand the effects of the switch from mechanically controlled machine tools to electronically controlled machine tools and then to digitally controlled machine tools. I don't really know much about machine tools, but, then again, I don't know much [...]
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  Posted: November 02, 2009, 10:04am EST
  by Robert

• Public Option Hardest Ball

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  The proposal made here in "Public Option Harder Ball" received enthusiastic support when it was coincidentally semi proposed as opt-in by Sen Carper (D-Bankruptcy Reform) and modified to to opt-out by Senator Schumer (D-tough guy). As presented here on September 4 it was clearly unconstitutional and [...]
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  Posted: October 28, 2009, 11:45am EDT
  by Robert

• Lieberman Says He Will Support a Filibuster

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) said Tuesday that he’d back a GOP filibuster of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s health care reform bill.
  
  
  Lieberman, who caucuses with Democrats and is positioning himself as a fiscal hawk on the issue, said he opposes any health care [...]
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  Posted: October 27, 2009, 3:04pm EDT
  by Robert

• Opt Out Going to the Senate Floor

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  Harry Reid is sending a health care reform bill with a public option and an opt out clause to the floor of the Senate. . Josh Marshall explains why it is good policy and notes "the importance that an outside-the-box idea can have in significantly changing" [...]
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  Posted: October 26, 2009, 5:06pm EDT
  by Robert

• Wobegone Finance

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  The average person thinks he has higher than average intelligence. This is an empirical fact [citation needed]. It is not incorporated into standard finance theory, but it matters a lot. It has been argued that the high volume of transactions on financial markets can be understood easily. [...]
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  Posted: October 22, 2009, 3:47pm EDT
  by Robert

• Schizzo Welfare Economics

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  I think that a popular approach to welfare economics requires simultaneously holding two contradictory beliefs.
  
  1) Utility is not comparable across individuals so we can only say whether an outcome is Pareto efficient or not.
  2) Models which are not reality but which approximate reality are [...]
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  Posted: October 20, 2009, 10:50am EDT
  by Robert

• Moody's Blues

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  This McClatchy article by Kevin G Hall seems important to me. It does rely a lot on accusations by disgruntled ex employees, but I guess that is unavoidable.
  
  
  The lede
  
  WASHINGTON -- As the housing market collapsed in late 2007, Moody's Investors Service, [...]
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  Posted: October 18, 2009, 1:42pm EDT
  by Robert

• Tubes !

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  
  Not the intertubes, 18 mile long tubes held up by helium baloons releasing S02 into the stratosphere.
  
  Daniel Davies writes
  
  if you find yourself writing, in all seriousness, as a practical proposal, the phrase "pumping large quantities of sulphur dioxide into the Earth’s" [...]
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  Posted: October 17, 2009, 10:41am EDT
  by Robert

• WaPo Headline and Abstract III

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  I think that something has changed at www.washingtonpost.com, because I am infuriated by many headlines and abstracts of articles. I don't know if the same headlines appear in the dead trees version.
  
  Today we get
  
  Record-High U.S. Deficit May Dash Obama Goals
  Budget' [...]
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  Posted: October 17, 2009, 3:48am EDT
  by Robert

• Rasmussen

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  The Rasmussen polling agency has two reputations. They have a good record predicting the vote in elections (which means especially primary elections give schduling and attention and stuff). On general public opinion, they ask questions which sure sound like Republican push polls. The theories are that [...]
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  Posted: October 15, 2009, 10:42am EDT
  by Robert

• Just Kill Me

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  Don't kill the guy who writes headlines for www.washingtonpost.com. Nonviolence. First amendment. Free press. Don't do it.
  
  I have already complained about another headline today, but I must admit that "Stagnant Prices Prevent Social Security Increase" totally leaves "Cap-and-Trade Would Slow Economy, CBO Chief" [...]
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  Posted: October 15, 2009, 8:14am EDT
  by Robert

• What Caused the Financial Crisis ?

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  has definitely not been spending enough time in bars. Nation food correspondent Calvin Trillin met a guy in a bar who explained why the financial system collapsed.
  I nominate some guy in a bar for the Nobel memorial prize in economics.
  
  The explanation ? “The financial [...]
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  Posted: October 15, 2009, 3:46am EDT
  by Robert

• Innumeracy

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  Doug Elmendorf says that the costs of cap and trade will be miniscule and does not try to estimate the benefits. Juliet Eilperin of the Washington Post demonstrates that she is the second most innumerate person on the planat, the most innumerate is the** guy who wrote [...]
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  Posted: October 15, 2009, 12:50am EDT
  by Robert

• Ignani and the Ignavi

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  AHIP The health insurance lobby just declared war on the Baucus plan. This is new, since they previously supported health care reform. It is not, however, surprising. AHIP made its condition clear, they would support health care reform provided that all were insured. Basically the individual mandate [...]
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  Posted: October 12, 2009, 5:56am EDT
  by Robert

• Marginal Cost

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  
  Kevin Drum writes
  
  Nicholas Tabarrok (brother of Alex) is a producer of small indie films. But he's frustrated because there's no way for him to increase his audience by lowering the price to see his pictures:
  
  
  When I make, [...]
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  Posted: October 09, 2009, 7:19am EDT
  by Robert

• message size should not exceed :-(

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  Does anyone hate the limit on comment length as much as I do ?
  Kharris had a very interesting comment on a post of mine below. I wrote a long reply.
  I can't post that reply in the comment thread so Kharris's comment and my reply are' [...]
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  Posted: October 09, 2009, 5:01am EDT
  by Robert

• Support for Opt Out Public Option

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  There is a surprising consensus for having a public option but allowing states to opt out.
  
  Paul Krugman likes the idea
  
  
  Josh Marshall likes the idea (and notes that Sen Schumer likes the idea)
  
  DailyKos frontpager McJoan likes the [...]
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  Posted: October 08, 2009, 10:29pm EDT
  by Robert

• Cochrane Vs Krugman

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  Look everyone is bored with this but I promised an e-mail correspondent that I would write about it. I can't force myself to read Cochrane, but I obviously just read Fox's quotes of Cochrane. I think I have something new to add to the pointless discussion of' [...]
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  Posted: October 08, 2009, 6:16am EDT
  by Robert

• Justin Fox assumes that economists are the only people who have used mathematics

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  Justin Fox writes
  
  
  That in itself is an interesting switch, and I wish Krugman had more directly confronted his transformation from guy who extolled "the scientific-mathematical outlook that is arguably the true glory of our civilization" to guy who writes that "the economics profession went" [...]
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  Posted: October 08, 2009, 5:21am EDT
  by Robert

• Labor market rents can cause business cycles

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  I'm not sure whether (more likely wherE) this has been noted in the literature, but wage differentials not due to differences in workers' skill are enough to generate a business cycle. A verbal "model" after the jump.
  
  update: additional model with fixed capital added.
  
  
  [...]
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  Posted: October 06, 2009, 9:12pm EDT
  by Robert

• The Maine Chance

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  One strange thing about the health care reform debate is that insurance companies claim to support reform. I have tended to suspect that they are just playing possum.
  
  Now I find positive proof that WellPoint is willing to do what it takes to make sure [...]
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  Posted: October 06, 2009, 9:58am EDT
  by Robert

• Defending Schumpeter from Krugman

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  Paul Krugman does not think highly of Austrian or liquidationist theories of the business cycle. He recently remade an argument which is hard to refute "the whole notion falls apart when you ask why, say, a housing boom — which requires shifting resources into housing" [...]
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  Posted: October 05, 2009, 9:03pm EDT
  by Robert

• Good Policy from the Bush administration

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  OK now that I have your attention, the policy is publicly funded primary care in public clinics staffed by federal employees (including the MDs). This is an excellent policy which provides care for the uninsured and reduces health care spending, because then they don't have to go' [...]
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  Posted: October 05, 2009, 7:39pm EDT
  by Robert

• Health Care Harder Ball: You read it here first

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  Angry Bear September 04 2009
  Tell reluctant senators and representatives that, if they think their constituents don't want any public insurance except for medicare and medicaid, then they can refuse to have it.
  
  Ezra Klein and Senator Maria Cantwell October 1 2009
  EK Can' [...]
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  Posted: October 01, 2009, 3:57pm EDT
  by Robert

• Vanilla

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  A proposed reform (already shelved) is to require banks to offer "plain vanilla" products. I am very confused about this proposal, so this is a semi bleg. I can't see any possible benefit from the regulation (probably because I haven't read the fine print of the draft [...]
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  Posted: October 01, 2009, 3:33pm EDT
  by Robert

• Incentives for Rating Agencies

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  It would be easy to pass a law that issuers of securities aren't allowed to pay ratings agencies. One problem is that if purchasers of securities paid for ratings, the ratings would have to be their secret at least for a while. One might add a provision' [...]
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  Posted: September 29, 2009, 9:57pm EDT
  by Robert

• Darwin Strauss and Popper

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  Neoconservatives have expressed sympathy for "intelligent design theory," that is, creationism. This is well documented by Ronald Bailey's article in "Reason on line." Bailey discusses why neoconservatives might claim they don't believe in evolution by natural selection even though there is no scientific basis for that [...]
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  Posted: September 28, 2009, 8:06pm EDT
  by Robert

• Frankly I'm with Frank

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Probably I accept elimination of the rule that financial companies must offer plain vanilla products for a different reason, since he isn't as ignorant as I am, but I would think that with a plain vanilly requirement, banks would offer plain vanilla products on terrible terrible terms. 30 year mortgage' [...]
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  Posted: September 25, 2009, 2:25pm EDT
  by Robert

• Deficits Debt and Capital Formation

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  Matthew Yglesias is completely mystified by opposition to deficit spending by the public and by Michele Boldrin. I basically agree with him, but I think that he is missing something.
  
  
  
  In response to public opposition to deficit spending he expresses the Keynesian argument [...]
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  Posted: September 23, 2009, 9:14pm EDT
  by Robert

• Medicare advantage. Advantage Democrats

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  OK so Snowe has broken with the other Republicans.
  
  After a heated hour-long exchange, Democrats defeated a Republican effort to restore $113 billion in funding for Medicare Advantage, a private insurance program that has been criticized for high costs. All 13 Democrats on the committee [...]
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  Posted: September 23, 2009, 7:58pm EDT
  by Robert

• Brad's Draft Lecture

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  Brad DeLong just posted a very interesting Draft Henry George lecture. It contains ideas which I haven't found written down before by Brad or by Krugman. I strongly recommend reading it (for one thing I don't know how to cut and paste from it). People who have [...]
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  Posted: September 22, 2009, 2:39pm EDT
  by Robert

• Why didn't CDO purchasers just pool for themselves ?

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  One brief question about structured finance and a possible answer. Why did investors need financial operators to make pools for them ? Now it is easier to make sense of financial intermediaries which pool than of those which pool and tranche. The obvious explanation is that an [...]
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  Posted: September 21, 2009, 6:27pm EDT
  by Robert

• Why Tranche

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  Still almost fishing from archives, but this time I think the version after the jump is maybe even less incoherant than the old version.
  
  
  
  Quite a lot of pooling and tranching has been done in the past decade. I think explanations of this fact [...]
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  Posted: September 21, 2009, 12:19pm EDT
  by Robert

• Financial Regulation

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  Just to post about something other than health care reform, I will type my vague thoughts on financial regulation after the jump. Much is similar to stuff I posted when financial regulation was the hot topic.
  
  
  
  I want to take a long look at [...]
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  Posted: September 21, 2009, 11:13am EDT
  by Robert

• Discussing a Quotation

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  “Nobody else gets hurt if you buy a lousy mortgage pool,” Cochrane said. “The government doesn’t need to write a new rule every time someone buys a rotten tomato. Investors will demand the right amount of transparency, complexity, and risk-sharing – or monitoring of mortgage pools – [...]
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  Posted: September 18, 2009, 9:25pm EDT
  by Robert

• Snowe Job

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  I am not questioning Senator Olympia Snowe's integrity. The Snowe job in question was my attempt to convince myself that Senator Snowe agrees with me. When reflecting on the question I discover that she strongly disagrees with Senator Snowe. I can see that the problem of health' [...]
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  Posted: September 16, 2009, 8:52am EDT
  by Robert

• Have Macro economists explained any patterns during my lifetime

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  I am trying to read John Cochrane's comments on Paul Krugman's article on why economists got it so wrong. I tend to get upset while reading. I have managed to get through the first paragraph in which Cochrane compares Krugman to someone who denies that HIV causes [...]
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  Posted: September 14, 2009, 10:49pm EDT
  by Robert

• Comments on Calormiris's Comments on Krugmans Comments on the State of Economics

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  I am actually commenting on a snippet with a useless link here.
  
  Professor Krugman's article, like much of his journalism, was hastily drafted and factually incorrect. [skip] One of the most humorous aspects of the article was its view that the efficient markets hypothesis [...]
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  Posted: September 13, 2009, 2:39pm EDT
  by Robert

• You Fold

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  I can't believe this "Illegal Immigrants Could Not Buy Insurance on New ‘Exchange,’ White House Says"
  
  So a rude idiot shouts "you lie" and Obama decides he has to punish undocumented aliens. This is not about subsidies which were clearly not on offer yesterday. This' [...]
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  Posted: September 11, 2009, 10:18pm EDT
  by Robert

• Huffington Post Editorial Standards II

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  In response to a critical comment, I have decided to actually read the article which I stopped reading when it said the Journal of Monetary Economics was a must publish journal for young economists.
  
  Ryan Grim asserts that economists don't criticize the Fed because' [...]
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  Posted: September 11, 2009, 7:41pm EDT
  by Robert

• The Leaky Bucket Fallacy

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  It appears that the worst tax ever TM is the brainchild of the normally sane Olympia Snowe.
  How could a sensible intelligent person come up with such a terrible idea ?
  What is wrong with the leaky bucket metaphor for the economics of redistribution ?
  [...]
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  Posted: September 11, 2009, 12:00pm EDT
  by Robert

• Huffington Post Editorial Standards

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  The Federal Reserve, through its extensive network of consultants, visiting scholars, alumni and staff economists, so thoroughly dominates the field of economics that real criticism of the central bank has become a career liability for members of the profession, an investigation by the Huffington Post has [...]
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  Posted: September 10, 2009, 6:46pm EDT
  by Robert

• In Partial Defence of Joe Wilson (R-Crazy)

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  OK not really. Really I'm semi disagreeing with Steve Benen's denunciation of Rep[rehensible] Wilson. The guy who shouted "you lie" when Obama said something true. He does seem to be a very special piece of work, but the consensus reality which he rejects is rather distorted on' [...]
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  Posted: September 10, 2009, 2:20pm EDT
  by Robert

• Worst Tax Ever Update

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  is going to obsess about one sentence in Obama's vital health care speech "Likewise, businesses will be required to either offer their workers health care, or chip in to help cover the cost of their workers." This doesn't say anything new, but it worries me. The problem' [...]
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  Posted: September 09, 2009, 9:20pm EDT
  by Robert

• CBPP Yesterday Angrybear July 27

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  The Baucus plan would give employers an incentive to discriminate against workers from lower income families. The incentive is to not give a job to someone who needs a job.
  
  The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities noted this yesterday.
  
  This blog noted [...]
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  Posted: September 08, 2009, 6:48pm EDT
  by Robert

• Public Option Harder Ball

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  McClatchy
  Via Jed Lewinson.
  
  
  Instead of a nationwide government insurance program, [House Majority Whip Jim] Clyburn is urging other Democrats to accept a scaled-down public option that would be tested as a pilot program in several parts of the country.
  [...]
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  Posted: September 04, 2009, 9:10pm EDT
  by Robert

• Medicare Bleg

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  finds himself more than usually ignorant about a topic which interests him (hard as that is to believe).
  
  Medicare has a budget shortfall of present value of a whole whole lotta dough. This tends to make people worry, and makes many believe that benefits will be [...]
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  Posted: September 04, 2009, 10:43am EDT
  by Robert

• Why Is The Placebo Effect Getting Stronger ?

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  An article with that title by Steve Silverman in Wired is getting a lot of attention.
  
  I actually know a little bit about the placebo effect and depression. Lo and behold, Silverman's key example is the effect of placebos on depression. He briefly mentions two [...]
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  Posted: September 02, 2009, 9:14pm EDT
  by Robert

• Insanity in the White House

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  Or are they crazy like foxes ?
  
  I think Ezra Klein is being played.
  
  At least I sure hope he's being played. Klein is in contact with the White House. Unsurprisingly, he reports that there is a bitter debate over health care reform inside [...]
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  Posted: September 02, 2009, 8:52pm EDT
  by Robert

• Health Care Hardball II

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  (who deeply respects our nations senior citizens) has probably written this post already but he forgot.
  
  I had a concern about the proposal to split health care in the Senate into 2 bills one to be passed as budget reconciliation (the 50 votes bill) and one [...]
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  Posted: September 01, 2009, 1:58pm EDT
  by Robert

• Clean Coal and Cap and Trade

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  Joe Strawman argues that the solution to global warming is clean coal technology and in particular sequestering C02 from exhaust from coal fired power plants. Therefore cap and trade is a bad policy, because technology will solve anything soon.
  
  In fact, if "clean coal" is [...]
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  Posted: August 31, 2009, 12:17pm EDT
  by Robert

• Most* Americans want to soak the rich

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  Polling results are absolutely clear. Now and for the decades a clear majority of US residents support taking from the rich and ... well it doesn't much matter what. Republicans often argue that this or that would be "class warfare" leading to the guess that they might' [...]
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  Posted: August 30, 2009, 2:24pm EDT
  by Robert

• Health Care Reform Hard Ball

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  is a bit irritated with [many] US senior citizens. They want to keep the hands of the government off their medicare.* I don't want to think what would happen if the government meddled with their social security pensions. Most US senior citizens are acting as egoistical' [...]
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  Posted: August 30, 2009, 11:27am EDT
  by Robert

• Fiscally Conservative Districts ?

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  Via Ezra Klein I read
  
  Collender thinks this is wrong for two reasons. First, the Democrats with the most difficult reelection battles are the freshmen elected in Republican-leaning, fiscally conservative districts. They'll need something to show for their time in Washington, and along with the' [...]
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  Posted: August 25, 2009, 6:06pm EDT
  by Robert

• The Maine Chance

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  This seems important to me.
  
  
  Small business representatives told [Senator] Snowe [R-Miane] that they were opposed to any mandates that came without a public option and that such an alternative was desperately needed for small business, which can't afford the rising cost of' [...]
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  Posted: August 22, 2009, 9:41am EDT
  by Robert

• Excellent Article in the Washington Post

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  
  This is an extraordinarily good article by Washington Post standards.
  OK I'm biased. The topic is how great my dad Thomas Waldmann MD is, but it is really a good article. In particular, when explaining what is so extraordinary about my dad it addresses an' [...]
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  Posted: August 19, 2009, 7:24am EDT
  by Robert

• Public Option, Cooperatives or a Cooperative

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  can't resist writing about health care reform. The actual debate seems very focused on the public option -- will the minority of Americans who have access to the new insurance exchanges have the opportunity to buy health insurance from the US government.
  
  Notably this is the' [...]
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  Posted: August 18, 2009, 7:09am EDT
  by Robert

• Kevin Drum Huh ?

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  knows that either Robert Waldmann or Kevin Drum is very confused. Help me out here.
  
  update: Drum is right and I'm wrong. Thanks guest in comments. I should have checked before posting.
  
  Drum wrote
  
  But even if this works, no one' [...]
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  Posted: August 17, 2009, 9:37am EDT
  by Robert

• Can the U.S. Government do anything right ?

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  I hate to type that headline given the health care reform debate, but I am alarmed by Karen DeYoung's article in the Washington Post about new efforts to get Afghans to stop producing opium -- all new this time with carrots.
  
  The problem is that' [...]
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  Posted: August 08, 2009, 6:51am EDT
  by Robert

• Very Excellent Post on Health Insurance Recisions

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  Taunter explains the link between Monte Hall and Health Insurance. Brilliant.
  
  Via Paul Krugman via Yves Smith so I'm sure you've read it already but if not click now click often.
  
  James Kwak at Baseline described the practice as rare, affecting only 0.5% [...]
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  Posted: August 04, 2009, 12:44pm EDT
  by Robert

• Michelle Malkin and Larry Katz

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  is very very late with this one. Appears that long long ago (in blogtime) Michelle Malkin said that Larry Katz once wrote that unemployment insurance causes unemployment.
  
  
  I know Larry Katz, Larry Katz was my PhD co-supervisor, Larry Katz is a friend of mine [...]
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  Posted: August 04, 2009, 5:56am EDT
  by Robert

• Are They Allowed To Write That

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  wonders why ROBERT PEAR and DAVID M.HERSZENHORN of the New York Times broke the main rule of fair and ballanced journalism -- one must never question the honesty of a Republican. Out of some residual respect for journalistic standards, they put their gasp reporting [...]
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  Posted: July 31, 2009, 4:04pm EDT
  by Robert

• Rural Bias in the Senate

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robret Waldmann
  
  Gang of 6 senators who correspond to 6.5 representatives.
  
  The US senate has an extreme rural bias. It has outdone itself by allowing Max Baucus to empower a bipartisan group of 6 senators to redesign health care reform. The states represented by the 6 senators [...]
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  Posted: July 28, 2009, 9:54am EDT
  by Robert

• Worst Tax Ever

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  The AP writes on the current state of negotiations in the 6 member Baucus Bipartisan ad hoc committee. Their plan includes an idea that is worse than I imagined possible. I mean that literally.
  
  Officials also said a bipartisan compromise would not subject companies to a [...]
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  Posted: July 27, 2009, 9:05pm EDT
  by Robert

• What a Pack of Blue Faced Liars

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  A courageously anonymous blue dog explains to Shailagh Murray and Paul Kanewhy they are blocking health care reform
  
  several dozen anxious House Democrats who are wary of the more liberal course their leaders have taken on health care. Feeling burned by a tough vote on [...]
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  Posted: July 27, 2009, 12:22pm EDT
  by Robert

• Golgotha program update

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  Looks like there are still people interested in Marx.
  
  I guessed Brad would be interested (OK so I link begged but just a little) but I wouldn't have guessed that James Wimberley would be.
  
  Mainly this post is about an e-mail from Ben' [...]
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  Posted: July 26, 2009, 9:18pm EDT
  by Robert

• Blue Dog House

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  dares to debate Nate Silver
  
  Nate Silver argues that health care reform might be in more danger in the House than the Senate. He notes that there are, by the standard DW-NOMINATE rating system, many conservative Democrats in the House and none (zero) in the Senate (Ben [...]
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  Posted: July 24, 2009, 12:48am EDT
  by Robert

• The Blues Sued

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  In an even with some possible relevance to the ongoing health care reform debate
  
  Bayonne Hospital Center just sued Horizon Blue Cross Blue Shield accusing it of "Life-Threatening Business Practices"
  
  via John Aravosis
  
  Any thoughts ? [...]
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  Posted: July 23, 2009, 11:59pm EDT
  by Robert

• Broken Okun

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  is honestly puzzled by this post by Brad DeLong. Brad notes that firms don't seem to be hoarding labor and goes on to predict a jobless recovery.
  
  We Are Live at The Week with "The Jobless Recovery Has Begun"..
  
  "Okun's Law." Here is' [...]
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  Posted: July 21, 2009, 12:11pm EDT
  by Robert

• The Critique of the Golgotha Program

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  on Karl Marx, Arthur Laffer and Simon Peter.
  
  Which one here is not like the others, because he was a lunatic extremist egalitarian not an ambitious sophist ?
  
  Marx famously declared "From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs." This [...]
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  Posted: July 15, 2009, 6:46pm EDT
  by Robert

• Medical Innovation in the USA

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  Kevin Drum writes
  
  Conor Friedersdorf has three reasons he doesn't think he'll be able to support any of the progressive healthcare reforms currently on tap.
  
  Argument #3:
  
  I keep seeing the argument that America is the leading health care innovator, and [...]
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  Posted: July 15, 2009, 7:13am EDT
  by Robert

• Second Best Second Stimulus

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  It sure looks like the US economy would benefit from a second stimulus. However, it also looks clear that congress will not pass an optimal second stimulus. Getting my thoughts on economics and politics from a philosophy major, I note that Matthew Yglesias notes that it [...]
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  Posted: July 13, 2009, 9:30am EDT
  by Robert

• Seymour Martin Hersh

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  There is something which I genuinely don't understand about US journalism. Why don't US journalists cite Seymour Hersh more ? I have never heard anyone rank him as an investigative journalist lower than number one, yet his stories vanish for months or years until someone else reports [...]
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  Posted: July 13, 2009, 8:18am EDT
  by Robert

• Who are You and What Have You done with Kevin Drum ?

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  The absolutely brilliant and almost reliably reasonable Kevin Drum quotes the very smart and usually reasonable Dan Drezner and writes
  
  In a speech today in Russia, Barack Obama said that "the pursuit of power is no longer a zero-sum game." Dan Drezner isn't so sure:
  [...]
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  Posted: July 08, 2009, 9:22am EDT
  by Robert

• Oil Price Speculation

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  I almost feel I might disagree with Paul Krugman about international economics with imperfect competition. In particular Krugman confidently asserts that the wild swings in the the price of petroleum are the result of simple supply and demand curves (which are both extremely price inelastic so almost [...]
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  Posted: July 08, 2009, 8:58am EDT
  by Robert

• Who Are You and What Have You Done With Paul Krugman II

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  Paul Krugman thinks that a US politician is excessively opposed to tariffs.
  
  End of days near.
  
  I think the president has this wrong:
  
  President Obama on Sunday praised the energy bill passed by the House late last week as an “extraordinary first [...]
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  Posted: June 30, 2009, 9:41pm EDT
  by Robert

• In Which Gred Mankiw Displays Alarming Ignorance about that Giant Glowing Red Triangle Across the River

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  Suggests that serious readers go read Brad Delong's comment on Greg Mankiw's comment on Paul Krugman's assertion that George Will and Gred Mankiw are "either remarkably ignorant or simply disingenuous." Totally asking for it, Mankiw also commented on Krugman's post referring to DeLong and [...]
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  Posted: June 29, 2009, 7:48pm EDT
  by Robert

• Decimate or Alienate

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  A good sign of a totally bogus argument is reliance on contradictory presumptions of fact. When one is simply wrong, one can often make a convincing argument by inventing facts. When one is being absurd, one can fall into the temptation to invent inconsistent facts.
  
  In [...]
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  Posted: June 28, 2009, 4:16pm EDT
  by Robert

• Are We in a Liquidity Trap ?

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  In which Robert Waldmann finds economic theory useful.
  
  A question: when does deficit financed public spending cause higher interest rates which cause private investment to be lower than it would be other things (including the spending) equal.
  
  Proposed answer, not when we are in a liquidity trap. [...]
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  Posted: June 24, 2009, 8:50pm EDT
  by Robert

• The Internet and the Productivity Speedup

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  The unexpected increase in US productivity growth in the 90's and naughties is an economic puzzle. At the time it was widely argued that investments in information and communications technology had finally finally paid off, that computers and the internet allowed vastly improved corporation wide inventory control' [...]
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  Posted: June 21, 2009, 6:09am EDT
  by Robert

• A Dan Froomkin Memory

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  The Washington Post just fired Dan Froomkin. This has caused considerable outrage on the web. Interestingly, my personal reaction was that Froomkin doesn't need the Post -- he will get high traffic with a new affiliation or with an independent blog.
  
  After the jump a' [...]
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  Posted: June 20, 2009, 4:42pm EDT
  by Robert

• Regulatory Reform

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  has been playing hooky. Look it's the end of the semester. My actual job involves some actual work these days (ETA of a Thesis defense 40 minutes). Also, I note no popular demand for my opinions on the Obama administration plan to reform financial regulation, and I' [...]
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  Posted: June 19, 2009, 8:22am EDT
  by Robert

• Unclear on the Concept

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  Will Wilkinson* demonstrates his absolute inability to understand the concept of "opportunity cost" and complete lack of common sense after the jump.
  
  * update: spelling Kirrected.
  
  
  
  Cash for Clunkers
  by Will Wilkinson on June 10, 2009
  
  OK. Let me get this straight. [...]
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  Posted: June 13, 2009, 4:10am EDT
  by Robert

• Income Distribution and Infant Mortality Fantasy

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  Tilman Tacke and I wrote this manuscript looking at income inequality and infant mortality (I've discussed it here before).
  
  I am going to indulge myself describing the paper I wanted to write but couldn't because the data didn't cooperate (gave essentially no empirical support for' [...]
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  Posted: June 10, 2009, 9:16am EDT
  by Robert

• The REH vs the EMH

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  I think I should explain a claim I made in the post below. I assert that the efficient markets hypothesis (EMH) does not imply the rational expecations hypothesis (REH).
  
  The EMH states that asset prices are the same as they would be if everyone had rational [...]
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  Posted: June 09, 2009, 8:57am EDT
  by Robert

• Shrill

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  I usually try to be semi polite. I especially don't usually deliberately write rude things about smart economists. However, here goes. Evidently Tyler Cowen* wrote
  
  In a strict rational expectations model, we might expect some people to overtrust others and one view of' [...]
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  Posted: June 09, 2009, 5:30am EDT
  by Robert

• Short and Variable Lags

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  Casual discussion of macroeconomics suffers from the fact that one can get any result one wants by playing with lags. I'm not saying that I think formal econometrics adds much. However, things could be worse. Discussion of the ups and downs of the stock market is even' [...]
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  Posted: June 09, 2009, 5:10am EDT
  by Robert

• Bugs and Features

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  Everyone is commenting on how, according to the New York Times, critics of the health care public option claim that it will provide the same health insuranceas private plans at lower cost to consumers and that this is a problem "unfair competition". (simple rule when they say [...]
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  Posted: June 08, 2009, 10:41am EDT
  by Robert

• Told You So

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  So, in the end, it turns out that the FDIC trust fund will not be raided in order to bail out banks by buying overpriced legacy loans. The FDIC retained control, and has no inclination to blow its trust fund, that is, it refused to make [...]
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  Posted: June 04, 2009, 10:24pm EDT
  by Robert

• Jeff Sachs and Longer and More Variable Lags

  —Angry Bear

  Number of comments: 0
  Robert Waldmann
  
  So I'm reading "Aid Ironies" by Jeff Sachs and nodding my head vigorously.
  
  "The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, TB, and Malaria, and the Global Alliance on Vaccines and Immunizations are both saving lives by the millions, and at remarkably low cost."
  
  Yes
  [...]
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  Posted: June 03, 2009, 8:46pm EDT
  by Robert