Calculated Risk

• WWII Slogan Makes a Comeback

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  Earlier posts ...
  Summary and a Look Ahead (A busy week for housing data!)
  
  Fed's Bullard Backs Extension of MBS Purchases
  
  Possible Changes to FHA Insured Mortgages
  
  
  From the NY Times: [...]
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  Posted: November 22, 2009, 10:36pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Fed's Bullard Backs Extension of MBS Purchases

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  From the WSJ Real Time Economics: Fed’s Bullard: Asset Buying Efforts Should Remain Active (ht (Bob_in_MA) “I have advocated to keep the asset purchase program open but at a very low level, and wait and see what happens, and as information comes in about the economy we can adjust [...]
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  Posted: November 22, 2009, 7:26pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Possible Changes to FHA Insured Mortgages

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  Kenneth Harney at the SF Chronicle lists a few possible changes: FHA looking for ways to pump up its reserves. Harney lists four possible changes:
  
  Higher down payments. The current downpayment requirement is 3.5%, and Harney mentions proposals for an increase to 5% or more. This will [...]
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  Posted: November 22, 2009, 4:10pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Summary and a Look Ahead

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  This will be a busy week for housing news starting with October existing home sales on Monday, Case-Shiller house prices on Tuesday, and New Home sales on Wednesday.
  
  Existing home sales will probably be very high - close to a 5.8 million SAAR - because of the rush of [...]
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  Posted: November 22, 2009, 12:15pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• CRE Owners Seeking Property Tax Relief

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  From Carolyn Said at the San Francisco Chronicle: S.F. commercial properties seek tax relief Landmark skyscrapers, signature hotels and upscale retailers glitter in the San Francisco skyline and enhance its cachet. But with commercial real estate slumping, they soon may subtract badly needed cash from the city's coffers.
  ...
  [...]
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  Posted: November 22, 2009, 9:34am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• More on Strategic Defaults

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  From Lew Sichelman at the LA Times: Owners' willingness to 'strategically default' on loans depends largely on how far underwater they are (ht Ann)
  
  Most of the LA Times article is based on the paper by Guiso, Sapienza and Zingales that I covered in June: Moral' [...]
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  Posted: November 21, 2009, 9:22pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Jon Stewart on Silver Dome, Goldman Sachs and more

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  Here is a link if the embed doesn't work.
  
  ' [...]
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  Posted: November 21, 2009, 7:40pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• The Fed and Mortgage Rates

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  Meredith Whitney expressed concern about what will happen when the Fed stops buying GSE MBS by the end of the first quarter 2010. From Bloomberg: Meredith Whitney Says Bank Stocks Are ‘Grossly’ Overvalued The Federal Reserve has begun slowing purchases in the $5 trillion market for so-called agency [...]
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  Posted: November 21, 2009, 3:20pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• FDIC Bank Failure Update

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  Note: The FDIC will probably release the Q3 Quarterly Banking Profile next week. The report will show the number of banks on the problem bank list, and the status of the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF).
  
  The FDIC closed another bank on Friday, and that brings the total [...]
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  Posted: November 21, 2009, 11:01am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Fed Watch: "The Fed in a Corner"

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  From Tim Duy: The Fed in a Corner Over the years, I have warned a seemingly countless number of undergraduates that Fed's hold on monetary independence was tenuous at best. Independence is not guaranteed by the Constitution. Congress made the Fed, and Congress can unmake the Fed. The Fed [...]
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  Posted: November 21, 2009, 9:02am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Jim the Realtor: Trustee Sale

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  Jim is featuring a few trustee sale opportunities recently ... the total loan on this one is about $650,000 and the opening bid is $331,500 for a 2100 sq ft house on over 4 acres in a remote area of San Diego:
  
  [...]
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  Posted: November 21, 2009, 12:30am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Unofficial Problem Bank List Increases to 513

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  This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.
  
  Changes and comments from surferdude808: The Unofficial Problem Bank List increased by a net six institutions to 513 while aggregate assets declined to $302.3 billion from $304 billion.
  
  There were 12 institutions added to [...]
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  Posted: November 20, 2009, 9:03pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Bank Failure #124 in 2009: Commerce Bank of Southwest Florida, Fort Myers, Florida

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  Turkey on table
  Carved up by the Central Bank
  MMMM Commerce Bank, Yum!
  by Soylent Green is People
  From the FDIC: Central Bank, Stillwater, Minnesota, Assumes All of the Deposits of Commerce Bank of Southwest Florida, Fort Myers, FloridaCommerce Bank of Southwest Florida, Fort Myers, Florida, was [...]
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  Posted: November 20, 2009, 5:04pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Moody's: CRE Prices Off 43% from Peak

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  From Globe St.: Values Off 43% From 2007 Peak Prices nationwide have fallen 42.9% from their October 2007 peak, according to the latest Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Price Index report issued Thursday, while Real Capital Analytics says total transaction volume for 2009 will be the lowest of the decade. The [...]
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  Posted: November 20, 2009, 2:47pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• National Survey: Data on Home Buying Financing

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  Here is some national data on home buyer financing in October. This is from a survey by Campbell Communications (excerpted with permission) released today.
  
  Source: October Trends in Existing Home Sales, a presentation from Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance Monthly Survey on Real Estate Market Conditions.
  
  Thomas Popik, Campbell [...]
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  Posted: November 20, 2009, 1:43pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Krugman on AIG

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  From Paul Krugman writing in the NY Times: The Big Squander During the bubble years, many financial companies created the illusion of financial soundness by buying credit-default swaps from A.I.G. — basically, insurance policies in which A.I.G. promised to make up the difference if borrowers defaulted on their debts. [...]
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  Posted: November 20, 2009, 12:30pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Unemployment Rate Increases in 29 States in October

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  From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary Twenty-nine states and the District of Columbia recorded over-the-month unemployment rate increases, 13 states registered rate decreases, and 8 states had no rate change, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the year, jobless rates increased in [...]
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  Posted: November 20, 2009, 10:00am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• A Few House Price Forecasts

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  From housing consultant Ivy Zelman commenting on the MBA Delinquency report in the NY Times U.S. Mortgage Delinquencies Reach a Record High"I’ve been pretty bearish on this big ugly pig stuck in the python and this cements my view that home prices are going back down."From Bloomberg: Housing [...]
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  Posted: November 20, 2009, 8:55am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• More on FHA Loans

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  David Streitfeld at the NY Times adds some color: Easy Loans in Expensive Areas In January, Mike Rowland was so broke that he had to raid his retirement savings to move [to San Francisco] from Boston.
  
  A week ago, he and a couple of buddies bought a two-unit [...]
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  Posted: November 19, 2009, 11:39pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• On Negative T Bills

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  There was some buzz earlier today about short term T bill rates turning slightly negative. This happened last year too, but for different reasons ...
  
  From the Financial Times: Short-term US interest rates turn negative Short-term US interest rates turned negative on Thursday as banks frantically stockpiled government [...]
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  Posted: November 19, 2009, 9:30pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• States: Seriously Delinquent Mortgages vs. Unemployment Rate

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  Here is a scatter graph comparing the seriously delinquency rate for mortgage loans vs. unemployment rate for all states. The seriously delinquent rate include 90+ days delinquent loans, and loans in the foreclosure process for Q3 2009 (Source: MBA).
  
  [...]
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  Posted: November 19, 2009, 6:45pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Mortgage Delinquencies and Foreclosures by Period Past Due

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  Click on graph for larger image in new window.
  
  First, on the market ...
  
  This graph is from Doug Short of dshort.com (financial planner): "Four Bad Bears".
  
  Note that the Great Depression crash is based on the DOW; [...]
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  Posted: November 19, 2009, 3:49pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Hotel RevPAR off 15.7 Percent

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  From HotelNewsNow.com: New Orleans leads ADR, RevPAR declines in STR weekly numbers Overall, in year-over-year measurements, the industry’s occupancy fell 6.4 percent to end the week at 52.6 percent, ADR dropped 9.9 percent to US$95.86, and RevPAR decreased 15.7 percent to finish at US$50.47.[...]
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  Posted: November 19, 2009, 1:14pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• MBA Forecasts Foreclosures to Peak in 2011

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  On the MBA conference call concerning the "Q3 2009 National Delinquency Survey", MBA Chief Economist Jay Brinkmann said this morning:
  
  The problem is moving to prime loans, including fixed rate prime loans, and also FHA loans. "We are seeing the first hit on the weaker prime fixed borrowers." [...]
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  Posted: November 19, 2009, 11:08am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• MBA: Record 14.4 Percent of Mortgage Loans in Foreclosure or Delinquent in Q3

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  The MBA reports a record 14.4 percent of mortgage loans were either one payment delinquent or in the foreclosure process in Q3 2009. This is an increase from 13.2% in Q2 2009.
  
  From the MBA: Delinquencies Continue to Climb in Latest MBA National Delinquency Survey The delinquency [...]
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  Posted: November 19, 2009, 10:00am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims: 505,000

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  The DOL reports on weekly unemployment insurance claims:In the week ending Nov. 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 505,000, unchanged from the previous week's revised figure of 505,000. [Revised from 502,000] The 4-week moving average was 514,000, a decrease of 6,500 from the previous week's' [...]
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  Posted: November 19, 2009, 8:30am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• The Failure of Regulatory Oversight

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  This is a recurring theme: a bank fails, the Inspector General reviews the failure and discovers that the field examiners saw problems starting around 2002, and ... nothing happened for years.
  
  We saw this with the Federal Reserve and the failure of Riverside Bank of the Gulf Coast, [...]
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  Posted: November 18, 2009, 10:33pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• MBA: Purchase Applications Fall to 12 Year Low

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  Another busy day and I skipped the MBA market index earlier ... note: The MBA Q3 delinquency report will be released tomorrow.
  
  The MBA reports: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly SurveyThe Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume decreased 2.5 percent on a [...]
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  Posted: November 18, 2009, 8:30pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• One million Workers to Exhaust Unemployment Benefits in January

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  "It's déjà vu all over again".
  Yogi Berra
  From the NY Times (edit): Jobless Benefits Set to Expire Unless Congress Acts About one million laid-off workers will see their unemployment benefits end in January ...
  
  The [recently] added federal benefits were built on a series of [...]
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  Posted: November 18, 2009, 5:42pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Housing Leads the Economy, Existing Home Sales are Irrelevant

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  After reading some of the commentary regarding the housing starts report this morning, it might be useful to reiterate these three points:
  
  Residential investment is the best leading indicator for the economy.
  
  Residential investment will not recover rapidly because of the large overhang of existing [...]
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  Posted: November 18, 2009, 3:30pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Quarterly Housing Starts and New Home Sales

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  The Census Bureau has released the "Quarterly Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design" report for Q3 2009.
  
  Monthly housing starts (even single family starts) cannot be compared directly to new home sales, because the monthly housing starts report from the Census Bureau includes apartments, owner built [...]
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  Posted: November 18, 2009, 1:56pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Falling Rents and Minneapolis

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  From the BLS report on the Consumer Price Index this morning: The rent index decreased 0.1 percent, the index for owners' equivalent rent [OER] was unchanged ... The rent index decreased at a -1.3% annualized rate, and OER declined in three of four ranges (only the Northeast Urban Region' [...]
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  Posted: November 18, 2009, 11:25am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• AIA: Architecture Billings Index Shows Contraction

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  From the American Institute of Architects : Index remains in negative category despite improvement Amidst a continued high level of inquiries for possible new projects, the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) reached its highest mark since August 2008, just before the serious credit problems emerged in our economy. As a [...]
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  Posted: November 18, 2009, 9:30am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Housing Starts Decline Sharply in October

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  Click on graph for larger image in new window.
  
  Total housing starts were at 529 thousand (SAAR) in October, down 10.6% from the revised September rate, and up from the all time record low in April of [...]
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  Posted: November 18, 2009, 8:30am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• California Still Faces Large Budget Deficit

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  From the LA Times: California faces a projected deficit of $21 billion Less than four months after California leaders stitched together a patchwork budget, a projected deficit of nearly $21 billion already looms, according to a report to be released Wednesday by the state's chief budget analyst.
  
  The [...]
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  Posted: November 17, 2009, 11:59pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Cash for Caulkers?

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  David Leonhardt writes in the NY Times: A Stimulus That Could Save Money White House officials are now looking at creating a new version of cash for clunkers — this time for home weatherization.
  ...
  [John] Doerr calls his proposal, which would give households money to pay for weatherization [...]
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  Posted: November 17, 2009, 9:56pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• The Next Stimulus: "Jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs"

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  From the WaPo: House shifts focus to 'jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs' "It's jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs," Rep. John B. Larson (D-Conn.) ... said ... "Members of this caucus feel ... that a jobless recovery is just simply unacceptable to us." And Reuters list some possible items "under consideration": [...]
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  Posted: November 17, 2009, 7:34pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• More on Industrial Production

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  Earlier I posted a graph on capacity utilization: Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization Increase Slightly in October
  
  Spencer at Angry Bear is tracking the recovery in industrial production compared to previous recessions.As the chart shows, this changes the impression the previous reports had given that this was [...]
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  Posted: November 17, 2009, 4:54pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• DataQuick: SoCal Home Sales Increase

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  From DataQuick: Southland home sales up again, drop in median price smallest in 2 years Southern California home sales rose in October as prices showed more signs of firming. The median sale price fell by the smallest amount in two years, the result of a shrinking inventory of homes [...]
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  Posted: November 17, 2009, 2:11pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• NAHB: Builder Confidence Flat in November

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  Click on graph for larger image in new window.
  
  This graph shows the builder confidence index from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB).
  
  The housing market index (HMI) was at 17 in November. October was revised down [...]
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  Posted: November 17, 2009, 1:00pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Fed's Lacker: Fed Can't be "paralyzed by patches of lingering weakness"

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  From Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker The Economic Outlook: Earlier this year some economists were highlighting the risk that the low level of economic activity could push the rate of inflation down, perhaps even below zero. I think the risk of a substantial further reduction in inflation has diminished [...]
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  Posted: November 17, 2009, 10:46am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization Increase Slightly in October

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  From the Fed: Industrial production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production increased 0.1 percent in October ... Manufacturing production moved down 0.1 percent and the output of mines decreased 0.2 percent, but the index for utilities rose 1.6 percent. At 98.6 percent of its 2002 average, total industrial production was [...]
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  Posted: November 17, 2009, 9:15am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Report: Record Mortgage Loan Delinquency Rates in Q3

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  TransUnion reports that the 60 day mortgage delinquency rate increased to a record 6.25% in Q3, from 5.81% in Q2.
  
  From TransUnion: Mortgage Loan Delinquency Rates on Course to Hit Record in 2009 Mortgage loan delinquency (the ratio of borrowers 60 or more days past due) increased for [...]
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  Posted: November 17, 2009, 8:29am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Merle Hazard: Give me that Old Time Recession

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  Some late night entertainment from Merle Hazard (other hits include Inflation or Deflation?, Mark to Market and H-E-D-G-E)
  
  Note: Merle will be performing live at the annual convention of the American Economic Association, Sunday, January 3, 2010, 8 p.m. in Atlanta.
  
  [...]
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  Posted: November 16, 2009, 11:55pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Update on Las Vegas Cosmopolitan Resort & Casino

  Number of comments: 0
  In June 2008, reader Brian sent me an email that started: "When the bankers are selecting color schemes, you know a project isn't going well"He was referring to Deutsche Bank foreclosing on the $3.5 billion Cosmopolitan Resort & Casino in Las Vegas.
  
  Bloomberg has an update: Deutsche' [...]
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  Posted: November 16, 2009, 10:54pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• TARP Watchdog: AIG Bailout Transferred Billions from Government to Counterparties

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  In a report (pdf) titled "Factors Affecting Efforts to Limit Payments to AIG Counterparties", Neil Barofsky, special inspector for TARP, wrote that the "negotiating strategy to pursue concessions from [AIG] counterparties offered little opportunity for success, even in the light of the willingness of one of the counterparty to" [...]
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  Posted: November 16, 2009, 9:47pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Meredith Whitney Expects Double-Dip Recession, FDIC dumps "Cease & Desist"

  Number of comments: 0
  From CNBC (added): Stocks Overvalued, Recession Will Return: Meredith Whitney
  
  From American Banker: FDIC Speaks More Softly, Retains Stick The FDIC changed the name of its cease-and-desist order to the less ominous-sounding "consent order" (a term already used by other regulators) ... David Barr, an FDIC spokesman, [...]
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  Posted: November 16, 2009, 3:51pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• LA Area Port Traffic in October

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  Note: this is not seasonally adjusted. There is a very distinct seasonal pattern for imports, but not for exports.
  
  Sometimes port traffic gives us an early hint of changes in the trade deficit. The following graph shows the loaded inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of [...]
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  Posted: November 16, 2009, 2:24pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke at Economic Club of NY

  Number of comments: 0
  Here is a live video of Bernanke at the Economic Club of NY
  
  Here is the CNBC feed.
  
  Prepared Speech: On the Outlook for the Economy and Policy How the economy will evolve in 2010 and beyond is less certain. On the one hand, those who [...]
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  Posted: November 16, 2009, 12:15pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Business Inventories Decline in September

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  The Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales report from the Census Bureau today showed inventories are still declining.
  
  Click on graph for larger image in new window.
  
  The Census Bureau reported: Manufacturers’ and trade inventories, adjusted for seasonal variations but [...]
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  Posted: November 16, 2009, 10:00am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Retail Sales Increase in October

  Number of comments: 0
  On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 1.4% from September to October (seasonally adjusted), and sales are off 1.7% from October 2008. Excluding auto sales and parts, retail sales rose 0.2% in October.
  
  The increase in October was mostly a rebound from the decline in September.
  
  [...]
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  Posted: November 16, 2009, 8:30am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• IMF: China Needs Stronger Currency

  Number of comments: 0
  From Reuters: Stronger Yuan Needed for Global Rebalancing: IMF Chief IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said ... [China needs to increase emphasis on domestic demand], especially private consumption ...
  
  "A stronger currency is part of the package of necessary reforms," he said. "Allowing the renminbi (yuan) and other" [...]
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  Posted: November 16, 2009, 12:13am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Housing Starts and Vacant Units: No "V" Shaped Recovery

  Number of comments: 0
  On Friday I posted a graph showing the historical relationship between housing starts and the unemployment rate (repeated as the 2nd graph below). The graph shows that housing leads the economy both into and out of recessions, and the unemployment rate lags housing by about 12 to 18 months.
  [...]
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  Posted: November 15, 2009, 7:31pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Krugman Suggests $300 Billion Jobs Program

  Number of comments: 0
  "There’s no hard and fast number, but ... I have in mind something like $300 Billion, you could do quite a lot that’s actually targeted on jobs."
  Professor Paul Krugman, Nov 12, 2009 In the following interview, with Alison van Diggelen of Fresh Dialogues, Paul Krugman offers some suggestions for [...]
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  Posted: November 15, 2009, 3:32pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Summary and a Look Ahead

  Number of comments: 0
  This will be a busy week for key economic news starting with October Retail sales on Monday, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization on Tuesday, and Housing Starts and CPI on Wednesday.
  
  Also on Monday, at noon ET, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak at the Economic Club of [...]
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  Posted: November 15, 2009, 11:29am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• China Banking Regulator: U.S. Policy Fueling Asset Speculation

  Number of comments: 0
  From Bloomberg: China’s Liu Says U.S. Rates Cause Dollar Speculation “The continuous depreciation in the dollar, and the U.S. government’s indication, that in order to resume growth and maintain public confidence, it basically won’t raise interest rates for the coming 12 to 18 months, has led to massive dollar [...]
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  Posted: November 15, 2009, 9:20am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Orion Bank CEO Had a Plan ...

  Number of comments: 0
  In his comments with the Unofficial Problem Bank list, surferdude808 noted that the Federal Reserve issued a Prompt Corrective Action order against Orion Bank on Thursday. Orion was seized the following day by the FDIC.
  
  The PCA order makes for interesting reading (Note: Stephen at FUMU Finance [...]
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  Posted: November 14, 2009, 10:55pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Home Builder's Return on Lobbying

  Number of comments: 0
  Gretchen Morgenson at the NY Times writes about the tax loss carry-back1 "gift" for home builders in the recently signed "Worker, Homeownership and Business Assistance Act of 2009": Home Builders (You Heard That Right) Get a Gift The Center for Responsive Politics reports that through Oct. 26 of this [...]
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  Posted: November 14, 2009, 7:18pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Zell on CRE: Too Soon for Grave Dancing

  Number of comments: 0
  From Barron's: Sam Zell: Too Soon for Dancing Sam Zell ... said ... that the time isn't ripe because owners of office, retail and warehouse properties and their lenders are living in a dream world, believing that property prices will recover and vacancies will drop. ...
  
  "Everybody is" [...]
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  Posted: November 14, 2009, 4:52pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation Deficit Increases

  Number of comments: 0
  The Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC) is the federal agency that guarantees pensions for 44 million Americans. The PBGC deficit doubled over the last six months to $22 billion ... but this is only just the beginning as the agency's potential exposure to future losses increased sharply.
  
  From the' [...]
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  Posted: November 14, 2009, 11:58am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• U.K. Mortgage Lenders: Don't Treat Us like "Drug Dealers"

  Number of comments: 0
  This is amusing ...
  
  From the Telegraph: FSA treats mortgage lenders like 'drug dealers', says CML chief Hitting back at the idea that lenders are “evil” and reckless, [Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) chief] Matthew Wyles said the industry should be allowed to treat its customers as adults, [...]
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  Posted: November 14, 2009, 8:55am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• More Losses for TARP

  Number of comments: 1
  When Pacific National Bank of San Clemente was closed by regulators Friday, the TARP lost $4.12 million (ht Matt Padilla). Last week the TARP lost $298.7 million when San Francisco-based United Commercial Bank (UCBH Holdings) failed.
  
  It looks like TARP losses are becoming a trend ... and, oh, [...]
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  Posted: November 14, 2009, 12:23am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Unofficial Problem Bank List increases to 507

  Number of comments: 0
  Note: This was before the three FDIC bank seizures today.
  
  This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks.
  
  Changes and comments from surferdude808: The Unofficial Problem Bank List changed by a net two institutions this week to 507.
  
  Seven institutions with assets of $1.6 billion [...]
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  Posted: November 13, 2009, 9:30pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Bank Failure #123 in 2009: Pacific Coast National Bank, San Clemente, CA

  Number of comments: 0
  Near the waters edge
  Sun sets on Pacific Coast
  A bank, drowned by debt
  by Soylent Green is People
  From the FDIC: Sunwest Bank, Tustin, California, Assumes All of the Deposits of Pacific Coast National Bank, San Clemente, California Pacific Coast National Bank, San Clemente, California, was [...]
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  Posted: November 13, 2009, 8:08pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Bank Failures #121 & 122: Two more in Florida

  Number of comments: 0
  Suited Bureaucrats
  Waiting for critical mass
  Century flames out
  
  What is that white light?
  Orion Supernovas
  Hot money burns bright
  by Soylent Green is People
  From the FDIC: IBERIABANK, Lafayette, Louisiana, Assumes All of the Deposits of Century Bank, Federal Savings Bank, Sarasota, Florida [...]
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  Posted: November 13, 2009, 6:08pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• State Budget Quote of the Day, and more Bank Failure Preview

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  From the WSJ: State Finance Directors Warn of More Trouble Ahead "I looked as hard as I could at how states could declare bankruptcy," said Michael Genest, director of the California Department of Finance who is stepping down at the end of the year. "I literally looked at the" [...]
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  Posted: November 13, 2009, 5:07pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Bank Failure Preview

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  A couple of banks in trouble ...
  
  From Reuters: US credit card issuer Advanta files for bankruptcy (ht jb) The company also said its Advanta Bank's capital is below regulatory requirements and that the bank could turned over to a Federal Deposit Insurance Corp receivership.
  
  Advanta said' [...]
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  Posted: November 13, 2009, 3:32pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Housing Starts and the Unemployment Rate

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  This is an update to an earlier post. As I've noted for some time, housing leads the economy and is the best leading indicator for the economy - both into and out of recessions.
  
  Update: Employment tends to be a coincident indicator into recessions, and used to be' [...]
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  Posted: November 13, 2009, 12:54pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Euro Zone GDP Grows in Q3

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  From the NY Times: Euro Zone Officially Out of Recession ... [T]he euro area emerged from recession during the third quarter, helped largely by export growth and improved industrial production in its largest economy, Germany.
  
  The European Union’s statistics agency, Eurostat, reported Friday that gross domestic product for [...]
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  Posted: November 13, 2009, 11:19am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Trade Deficit Increases in September

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  The Census Bureau reports: The ... total September exports of $132.0 billion and imports of $168.4 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $36.5 billion, up from $30.8 billion in August, revised. September exports were $3.7 billion more than August exports of $128.3 billion. September imports were [...]
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  Posted: November 13, 2009, 8:37am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• The Next Stimulus Package

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  Earlier this week I mentioned a possible "upside surprise" for GDP in 2010: With unemployment above 10%, there will be significant political pressure for another stimulus package - especially if the economy starts to slow in the first half of 2010. This next package could be several hundred billion [...]
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  Posted: November 13, 2009, 12:30am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• TARP Inspector General: Taxpayers to suffer Losses

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  From Bloomberg: Barofsky Says TARP ‘Almost Certainly’ Will Bring Loss (ht jb)Neil Barofsky ... said the [TARP] will “almost certainly” result in a loss to U.S. taxpayers.
  ...
  “Tens of billions of dollars are likely to be lost on the automotive bailout,” Barofsky said. In addition, some banks [...]
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  Posted: November 12, 2009, 8:17pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Rail Traffic Declines Slightly in November

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  Update: Title corrected to October.
  
  From the Association of American Railroads: Rail Time IndicatorsIn October 2009, U.S. freight railroads originated 1,100,714 carloads, an average of 275,179 carloads per week. That’s down 15.3% from October 2008 (when the weekly average was 324,836 carloads) and down 0.3% from September [...]
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  Posted: November 12, 2009, 5:56pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• FHA on DAPs: "Too many homeowners not equipped for home ownership"

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  The FHA commented on the damage caused by the Downpayment Assistance Programs (DAPs) today. These DAPs circumvented the FHA down payment requirements by having the seller funnel the "down payment" to the buyer through a "charity" (for a small fee of course). The FHA attempted to stop this practice, but [...]
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  Posted: November 12, 2009, 3:11pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Hotel RevPAR off 11.8 Percent

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  From HotelNewsNow.com: Boston leads RevPAR gains in STR weekly numbers Overall, in year-over-year measurements, the industry’s occupancy fell 3.6 percent to 54.8 percent, average daily rate dropped 8.5 percent US$97.19, and RevPAR decreased 11.8 percent to US$53.29. Click on graph for larger image [...]
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  Posted: November 12, 2009, 1:20pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• FHA Reserves Fall Sharply, Well Below Required Minimum

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  From David Streitfeld at the NY Times: Housing Agency Says Cash Reserves Are Down Sharply The Federal Housing Administration said Thursday morning that its cash reserves had dwindled significantly in the last year after a record drop in home prices.
  ...
  The results of the F.H.A.’s annual audit showed [...]
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  Posted: November 12, 2009, 11:08am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• MBA: Purchase Applications Fall to Nine Year Low

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  The MBA reports: Mortgage Refinance Applications Increase, Purchase Applications at Nine Year LowThe Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 3.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. ...
  
  The Refinance Index increased 11.3 percent from the previous week and the [...]
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  Posted: November 12, 2009, 9:05am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims: 502 Thousand

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  The DOL reports weekly unemployment insurance claims decreased to 502,000:In the week ending Nov. 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 502,000, a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 514,000. [revised from 512,000] The 4-week moving average was 519,750, a decrease of [...]
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  Posted: November 12, 2009, 8:30am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Fannie, Freddie, Counterparty Risk and More

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  Yesterday I posted some excerpt from Freddie Mac's 10-Q: We believe that several of our mortgage insurance counterparties are at risk of falling out of compliance with regulatory capital requirements, which may result in regulatory actions that could threaten our ability to receive future claims payments, and negatively impact [...]
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  Posted: November 11, 2009, 10:08pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• BofE's Mervyn King: Worst Over, "Long hard haul" Ahead

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  From The Times: The worst is over, says Bank of England Governor Better-than-expected unemployment figures and a rosier growth forecast from the Bank of England raised hopes yesterday that Britain was beginning to claw its way towards economic recovery.
  ...
  Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank, said Britain had [...]
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  Posted: November 11, 2009, 7:25pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• WSJ on Permanent Modifications

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  Ruth Simon at the WSJ has some details on permanent modifications: Mortgage Program Gathers Steam After Slow Start The administration won't release figures on completed modifications until December, but so far it appears that very few trial modifications are becoming permanent, often because of a lack of documentation.
  ...[...]
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  Posted: November 11, 2009, 4:30pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Unsolicited Principal Reduction Offer from BofA

  Number of comments: 0
  Here is an unsolicited Principal Reduction Loan Modification (pdf) offer from BofA. (ht Dwight)
  
  A few background details:
  The homeowner bought the house in May 2005 for $420,000.
  
  The homeowner refinanced in March 2006. This included a negatively amortizing adjustable rate mortgage (NegAM ARM) first [...]
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  Posted: November 11, 2009, 3:01pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Economic Outlook: Possible Upside Surprises, Downside Risks

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  As I've noted several times, my general outlook is for GDP growth to be decent in Q4 (similar to Q3) and for sluggish and choppy GDP growth in 2010. I've been asked to list some possible upside surprises, and downside risks, to this forecast.
  
  Possible Upside Surprises:
  
  [...]
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  Posted: November 11, 2009, 1:15pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• FHA Temporarily Relaxes Condo Rules

  Number of comments: 0
  Last week the FHA released a temporary guidance that relaxed some of the rules for condominiums. From the FHA: Temporary Guidance for Condominium Policy
  
  The Miami Herald has the key points: FHA moves to boost condo market• Increase from 30 percent to 50 percent the number of [...]
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  Posted: November 11, 2009, 11:23am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Orange County: Foreclosure Notices Hit Record High

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  Matt Padilla at the O.C. Register writes: Foreclosure notices hit record 8,800
  
  Click on graph for larger image in new window.
  
  Graph from O.C. Register.
  
  ForeclosureRadar.com reports that outstanding foreclosure auction notices in Orange County rose to 8,895 at [...]
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  Posted: November 11, 2009, 8:47am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• California Controller: Overview of the Commercial Property Markets

  Number of comments: 0
  Buried in the California Controller's November analysis is a guest article: Overview of the Commercial Property and Capital Markets with Implications for the State of California by Dr. Randall Zisler. (ht picosec)
  
  Here are some excerpts: Whereas excessive and imprudent leverage fed the bubble, deleveraging not only popped [...]
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  Posted: November 10, 2009, 10:23pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Fed's Fisher: Suboptimal Growth in 2010, "Perhaps" 2011

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  "[L]ooking into 2010 and perhaps to 2011, the most likely outcome is for growth to be suboptimal, unemployment to remain a vexing problem and inflation to remain subdued."
  Dallas Fed President Richard FisherAnd a little more Fed Speak ... (note: Fisher's speeches are always colorful).
  
  From Dallas Fed President [...]
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  Posted: November 10, 2009, 7:39pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Loan Modifications: Key Numbers not Released

  Number of comments: 0
  From Reuters: Treasury says 650,000 in trial home loan workouts [The Treasury Department] said there were 650,994 active trial modifications through October under President Barack Obama's plan to help the housing market. That was up from 487,081 ... participating through September.
  
  The Treasury did not release figures for [...]
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  Posted: November 10, 2009, 3:17pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Counterparty Risk: The Mortgage Insurers

  Number of comments: 0
  From the Ambac 10-Q: While management believes that Ambac will have sufficient liquidity to satisfy its needs through the second quarter of 2011, no guarantee can be given that it will be able to pay all of its operating expenses and debt service obligations thereafter, including maturing principal in [...]
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  Posted: November 10, 2009, 1:35pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Fed's Yellen on the Economic Outlook

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  Lately I’ve been leaning against the view of a “V shaped” recovery. I think that growth will be decent in the second half of 2009, but growth will be sluggish in 2010.
  
  San Francisco Fed President Dr. Yellen has a similar view – from her speech this morning: [...]
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  Posted: November 10, 2009, 10:53am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Fed's Lockhart on CRE and Small Business

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  From Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart: Economic Recovery, Small Business, and the Challenge of Commercial Real Estate [H]ow serious is the CRE problem for the financial system and the broad economy?
  
  First, let me provide some overview comments: While the CRE problem is serious for parts of [...]
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  Posted: November 10, 2009, 9:23am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Tough Times for the Travel Industry

  Number of comments: 0
  According to an article in the LA Times, it appears the 2009 holiday season will be worse than 2008 for the travel industry: Airlines, hotels face bleak holidays According to the Auto Club, 46% of those surveyed said they planned to spend the same amount on holiday travel as [...]
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  Posted: November 10, 2009, 8:43am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Employment and the Seasonal Adjustment

  Number of comments: 0
  Floyd Norris at the NY Times asks: Did Unemployment Really Rise? The economic reactions over the weekend to Friday’s employment report all started from the assumption that things grew much worse in October. The unemployment rate leaped to 10.2 percent from 9.8 percent. Another 190,000 jobs vanished.
  
  Actually, [...]
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  Posted: November 10, 2009, 12:19am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Mishkin: Not all bubbles the same

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  Former Fed Governor Frederic Mishkin writes in the Financial Times: Not all bubbles present a risk to the economy There is increasing concern that we may be experiencing another round of asset-price bubbles that could pose great danger to the economy. Does this danger provide a case for the [...]
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  Posted: November 09, 2009, 9:24pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• NY Governor: "Unprecedented financial challenge"

  Number of comments: 0
  From the NY Times: Paterson Paints Grim Picture of N.Y. Budget Crisis "We stand on the brink of a financial challenge of unprecedented magnitude in the history of this state,” Mr. Paterson told lawmakers as he warned that New York was rapidly running out of cash ...
  
  While" [...]
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  Posted: November 09, 2009, 6:10pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Distressed Sales: Sacramento as Example

  Number of comments: 0
  Note: The Sacramento Association of REALTORS® is now breaking out monthly resales by equity sales (conventional resales), and distressed sales (Short sales and REO sales). I'm following this series as an example to see changes in the mix in a former bubble area.
  
  [...]
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  Posted: November 09, 2009, 3:19pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Fed: Lending Standards Tighten, Loan Demand Weakens

  Number of comments: 0
  From the Fed: The October 2009 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices In the October survey, domestic banks indicated that they continued to tighten standards and terms over the past three months on all major types of loans to businesses and households. However, the net percentages [...]
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  Posted: November 09, 2009, 2:00pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• The 2009 Jobless Recovery

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  The following graph shows the maximum number of net jobs lost after the end of several official recessions (both in numbers and as a percent of peak employment prior to the start of the recession).
  
  Note: The last two columns assume the 2007 recession officially ended in June 2009 [...]
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  Posted: November 09, 2009, 11:11am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Fed's Bullard: Inflation Outlook Uncertain

  Number of comments: 0
  St. Louis Fed President James Bullard told the Financial Times that uncertainty about the inflation outlook is the most since 1980.
  
  From the Financial Times: Uncertainty ‘high’ over inflation outlook “For 2009, in particular, and maybe a little bit into 2010, you have to worry about getting out [...]
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  Posted: November 09, 2009, 8:39am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• WalMart: Quote of the Night

  Number of comments: 0
  A quote from a conference this weekend, from the NY Times: "There are families not eating at the end of the month,” said Stephen Quinn, executive vice president and chief marketing officer at Wal-Mart Stores, and “literally lining up at midnight” at Wal-Mart stores waiting to buy food when" [...]
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  Posted: November 08, 2009, 11:58pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk