Calculated Risk

• NY Times: Unemployment Measure U-6 Highest Since Great Depression

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  From David Leonhardt at the NY Times: Broader Measure of Unemployment Stands at 17.5% Excerpts:
  Officially, the Labor Department’s broad measure of unemployment goes back only to 1994. But early this year, with the help of economists at the department, The New York Times created a version that estimates [...]
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  Posted: November 06, 2009, 11:59pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Bank Failure #120: United Commercial Bank, San Francisco, California

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  Sunrise in the East
  United Commercial Bank
  Sunsets in the West
  by Soylent Green is People
  From the FDIC: East West Bank, Pasadena, California Assumes All the Deposits of United Commercial Bank, San Francisco, California United Commercial Bank, San Francisco, California, was closed today by the California [...]
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  Posted: November 06, 2009, 9:40pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Unofficial Problem Bank List Grows to 505

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  Note: This was before the FDIC seized four banks today.
  
  This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks.
  
  Changes and comments from surferdude808: The steady climb in members on the Unofficial Problem Bank list continued this week despite the failure of the multi-bank holding company FBOP Corporation, [...]
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  Posted: November 06, 2009, 9:27pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Bank Failures #118 & 119: Banks in Minnesota & Missouri

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  Whats a "Prosperan"?
  A breakfast food, car or band?
  Answer: money pit
  
  Looming Gateway Arch
  Symbol of pioneer spirit
  Their bank now a ghost.
  by Soylent Green is People
  From the FDIC: Alerus Financial, National Association, Grand Forks, North Dakota, Assumes All of the [...]
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  Posted: November 06, 2009, 7:13pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Bank Failure #117: Home Federal Savings Bank, Detroit, Michigan

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  Motor City crash.
  Home Federal has spun out.
  Bagholders totaled
  by Soylent Green is People
  From the FDIC: Liberty Bank and Trust Company, New Orleans, Louisiana, Assumes All of the Deposits of Home Federal Savings Bank, Detroit, Michigan Home Federal Savings Bank, Detroit, Michigan, was closed today [...]
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  Posted: November 06, 2009, 6:17pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Bank Failure #116: United Security Bank, Sparta, Georgia

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  "Feds!... Come and Take Them"
  United Security
  Sparta Bank is dead.
  by Soylent Green is People
  From the FDIC: Ameris Bank, Moultrie, Georgia, Assumes All of the Deposits of United Security Bank, Sparta, Georgia United Security Bank, Sparta, Georgia, was closed today by the Georgia Department of [...]
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  Posted: November 06, 2009, 5:05pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Consumer Credit Declines Sharply in September

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  From MarketWatch: Consumer debt drops for record 8th straight month Outstanding consumer debt fell at a 7.2% annual rate in September, the eighth consecutive decline, the Federal Reserve reported Friday. Click on graph for larger image in new window.
  
  This graph shows the [...]
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  Posted: November 06, 2009, 3:00pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• CRE Report: "Gloomy Times"

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  Update: A couple points: CRE is a lagging sector (see Business Cycle: Temporal Order), and I make some pretty optimistic comments in the middle of this post. I'll try to put some number togther on household formation and excess inventory.
  
  From Carolyn Said at the San Francisco Chronicle:' [...]
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  Posted: November 06, 2009, 1:47pm EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Unemployment: Stress Tests, Unemployed over 26 Weeks, Diffusion Index

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  A few more graphs ...
  
  Stress Test Scenarios
  
  The economy is performing better that the stress test baseline scenario for GDP and house prices, but worse than the "more adverse" stress test scenario for unemployment.
  
  Click on graph for [...]
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  Posted: November 06, 2009, 10:29am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Employment-Population Ratio, Record Part Time Workers, Weak Holiday Hiring

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  The [un]employment report headline numbers were ugly, but the internals are even less encouraging ...
  
  Employment-Population Ratio
  
  Click on graph for larger image in new window.
  
  This graph shows the employment-population ratio; this is the ratio of employed Americans to [...]
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  Posted: November 06, 2009, 9:24am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Employment Report: 190K Jobs Lost, 10.2% Unemployment Rate

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  From the BLS: The unemployment rate rose from 9.8 to 10.2 percent in October, and nonfarm payroll employment continued to decline (-190,000), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The largest job losses over the month were in construction, manufacturing, and retail trade.[...]
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  Posted: November 06, 2009, 8:30am EST
  by CalculatedRisk

• Employment Report Preview

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  See the poll in the right sidebar ...
  
  Catherine Rampell at the NY Times Economix offers a Jobs Report Preview
  
  Ms. Rampell suggests three things to look for:1) The unemployment rate may hit 10 percent.
  ...
  2) Job losses continue to mount, but more slowly.
  ...
  3) [...]
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  Posted: November 06, 2009, 12:31am EST
  by CalculatedRisk