He doesn’t like it. (HT: Paul Solman) I share Robb’s skepticism about drawing conclusions from empirical work that either ignores other factors or purports to control for them in the name of creating a “natural experiment.” Having been in the kitchen, I know how this dish gets cooked. [...]
Steve Benen:
The Washington Monthly: Republican critics of the economic recovery efforts, when they're not taking credit for the money that's benefiting their state/district, take it as a given that the stimulus "failed." For the right, it's a foregone conclusion, hardly worth discussing anymore. The New York Times reminds' [...]
“Our conclusion is that if small firms aren’t captured well in the advance GDP data, the economy may be growing less quickly than suggested by the recent official data.”
-Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs economist
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This certainly comes as no surprise to us:
“The U.S. government is having a tough time guesstimating how many [...]
In the current New Yorker, James Surowiecki is properly critical of the economic distortions introduced by taxing debt-financed income much more lightly than taxing equity-financed income.
But his policy conclusion is a non sequitur:
Given the weak state of the economy and of housing prices, a wholesale rewriting of the [...]
A salute to papers with boring conclusions
CRITICS of academic journals often focus on the issue of publication bias; everyone is anxious to publish a paper with a dramatic finding or unexpected result while few people care much about drawing attention to researchers who went looking for titillating findings [...]
Whenever there's a surprise takeover bid at a significant premium to the (formerly) prevailing stock-market price, dozens of journalists and bloggers immediately pull up options-volume data. Much of the time, they discover a suspicious spike in options volume just before the deal was announced. The conclusion is obvious: insider' [...]
Good think I know that Prof. Miller is kidding around:
Prof. Whitehead notes a post that says that the claim that meat production generates 51% of greenhouse gas emissions is based on "addled" conclusions.
By the way, why does nobody mention beer (or any adult beverage, for that matter) along with greenhouse gasses? There's a [...]
Prof. Whitehead notes a post that says that the claim that meat production generates 51% of greenhouse gas emissions is based on "addled" conclusions.
By the way, why does nobody mention beer (or any adult beverage, for that matter) along with greenhouse gasses? There's a reason they call those little' [...]
Pretty please, can we have some inflation?
YESTERDAY, I linked to a Paul Krugman post in which he links to an old piece of analysis he wrote on the Japanese economy in 1998, in which he says:To preview the conclusions briefly: in a country with poor long-run growth prospects [...]
I think this a map of the flora on your skin is potentially really useful, but it also leads to lines like this:
… Your mouth is more like my mouth than it is like your armpit …
One conclusion of the exercise was that the oils on your [...]
In 2008, the Boston Consulting Group ran a lifestyle survey of 12,000 women in 22 countries. Their survey findings inform the conclusions in Women Want More, a book that details the burgeoning women’s consumer market.
Each chapter includes statistics, company stories, and anecdotes from individual women. [...]
For months now, the hype surrounding the conclusion of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) two-day meetings has been far less about a possible change to the Federal funds rates, than it has been about the short statement that follows.
Today’s conclusion certainly continues that trend. While we weren’t expecting [...]
I have not crunched the numbers of Barron’s Big Money Poll — but I am curious if it operates as a reliable contrary indicator.
I would need to look at 30 years or so of the data to draw any statistically valid conclusion.
However, I cannot help [...]
Experts are more persuasive when they seem tentative about their conclusions, a study soon to be published in the Journal of Consumer Research suggests. But the opposite is true of novices, who grow more persuasive with increasing certainty. In one experiment, college students were randomly assigned one of four variations of a restaurant review, praising a [...]
