1) Menzie Chinn: Teaching Macro, after the Great Recession:
The last time I taught this course in the Spring of 2007, the key topics were inflation, the possibility of stagflation, and the possibility of containing the ongoing housing slowdown.... [This] semester... [the] two big concerns were (1) dealing [...]
Or, How to adapt the intermediate macro syllabus to an altered world
This semester is the first time I've taught intermediate macroeconomics link in over two years. The last time I taught this course in the Spring of 2007, the key topics were inflation, the possibility of stagflation, and' [...]
TODAY'S recommended economics writing:
• In a departure from the typical recession pattern, geographical mobility has fallen significantly in recent years. [...]
December 11, 2009
By John Mauldin
We are clearly starting to get some better data points here and there. But as I pointed out [...]
This week I read about two very distinct approaches to employee productivity. First, from an article in the Wall Street Journal:
The office cubicle is shrinking, along with workers' sense of privacy.
Many employers are trimming the space allotted for each worker. The trend has accelerated during the recession as employers [...]
Say what you will about household debt and the blowback from recession, but Joe Sixpack and his spendthrift ways won’t go quietly into the night, recession or no recession.
This morning’s update on retail sales for November was a reminder that ours is a consumer economy and old habits die hard. [...]
Ludwig von Mises died in 1973. In light of the current recession, the intellectual history of the last two centuries, and what we know about the prerequisites for growth and prosperity, we can learn much by reading and studying Mises. FULL ARTICLE by Art Carden
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China exported its way to a $2 trillion dollar fortress of F/X reserves ($USD mostly), while the US borrowed its way into a hole deep enough to spark a vast global recession. Who's to blame?This is a fascinating look at the trailing one year rate of return on the SPX, via The Chart Store.
Note that it bottoms below zero during recession, and with just one exception (2001), its at 10% as recessions end.
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Free exchange
What is a recession?
The Economist | WASHINGTON
KARL SMITH posts the chart below, from Calculated Risk:
And he writes:
My tendency has been to describe recession as periods in which [...]
Remember the home flipping of yesteryear, where you bought a home, fixed it up, and sold it for major profit a year or two later? The economy has taken care of that particular trend. But house flipping is far from dead. The Wall Street Journal has [...]
Several recent items have been brought to my attention, providing additional confirmation - if any was needed - that the recession is over:
Last Friday's Labour Force Survey for November (more below); Today's release for building permits in October; and Garth Turner has stopped selling survivalist merchandise.It's time to [...]
At the Economic Club of Washington D.C., Washington D.C.
December 7, 2009
It is a pleasure to speak once again before the Economic Club of Washington. Having faced the most serious financial crisis and the worst recession since the Great Depression, our economy has made important progress during [...]
I am still digging out from my trip, but this certainly caught my eye: NBER’s Hall Says Recession May Be Over, Month Unclear.
Two of the National Bureau of Economic Research’s Business Cycle Dating Committee members, including its chairman, now say the recession is over, even if the precise date [...]
Last week’s news of a drop in the unemployment rate to ten percent is a welcome development. It was presaged by earlier strength in reliable leading employment indicators, which suggest that this improving pattern will persist next year. In November employers cut the fewest jobs since the recession began, but [...]
I'm going to put forward two perspectives on why bad banks might be important in understanding the recession: an orthodox perspective; and a heterodox perspective.
Banks are financial intermediaries. A financial intermediary is a firm whose (primary) business is borrowing and lending. (They intermediate between the ultimate borrowers and the ultimate [...]
So a president early in his first term is faced with a recession that includes a stubborn unemployment rate. What does he do? Why he calls a conference on unemployment to bring together business, labor, and political leaders to figure out what should be done to solve the problem [...]
In the season of good cheer, it is certainly gratifying to know that some in the economic forecasting business are actually feeling cheerier:
Reaffirming last month's call that the Great Recession is over, NABE [National Association for Business Economics] panelists have marked up their predictions for economic growth' [...]
COPENHAGEN'S thunder has been stolen by the lingering effects of the global recession. The worst since the 1930s, [...]
Canada doesn't have a counterpart to the NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee, so we don't have a reference set of dates for previous business cycles. I'm pretty sure that most analysts would agree that the most recent expansion hit its peak in October of 2008, but picking a trough' [...]
Even though everyone should read "The House that Uncle Sam Built" for the "medium sized" Austrian treatment of the Great Recession, if you're really in a hurry you can get the "express version" in 800 words and six causes in this little essay of mine at the [...]
Today’s update on jobless claims strengthens the case for arguing that the Great Recession is over.
New filings for unemployment benefits dipped 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 457,000 for the week through November 28--the lowest since September 2008, the Department of Labor reports. The obvious caveat is that last [...]
I hate when I save a graphic, but then forget where I saw it originally — any one know where this is from?
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