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Jersey Shore Real Estate Bubble

  • APP Article on Hov

    Number of comments: 32

    BY DAVID P. WILLIS
    BUSINESS WRITER

    During its nearly 50-year history, Hovnanian Enterprises has seen ups and downs in the housing market.

    You can count this as one of those down times for New Jersey's largest home builder.

    The company has lost money' [...]

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    Posted: April 29, 2007, 10:26am EDT
    by Little_Silvered

  • Blame it on the Weather

    Number of comments: 7

    [Existing-home sales plummeted 8.4 percent from February (6,680,000 units) to March (6,120,000 units) and 11.3 percent since March 2006 according to a report released by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) Tuesday. Erratic weather across the country and unrest in the mortgage industry are being blamed for the drop.

    "For" [...]

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    Posted: April 24, 2007, 9:21pm EDT
    by Little_Silvered

  • "I Saw the Bubble Bursting"

    Number of comments: 5

    "This past Saturday, I attended a barbecue at my friends' house in Maryland. I was surprised to notice as I pulled up out front that the house next door looked vacant and forlorn. Instead of a for-sale sign, there were pages glued to the front window.

    As it turned'" [...]

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    Posted: April 23, 2007, 7:53pm EDT
    by Little_Silvered

  • NJ Legislator Tries To Make Matters Worse

    Number of comments: 13
    There is probably not a faster way to reduce housing market liquidity than to tell banks they can not foreclose. Simply put, a bank will not make a loan if believes the state will impede its ability to collect their collateral should the home owner not pay principal and interest. [...]
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    Posted: April 11, 2007, 9:05pm EDT
    by Little Silvered

  • Nice Deal For Carla Katz Corzine

    Number of comments: 3
    HOBOKEN — State workers' union boss Carla Katz, whose romantic history with Gov. Jon Corzine has caused him political headaches and shadowed recent contract talks, enjoyed a beneficial deal when she purchased a condominium four months ago in the same riverfront building where the governor resides.

    So rare were' [...]
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    Posted: April 09, 2007, 8:23pm EDT
    by Little Silvered

  • Rumson House Back on Market - 2 Years After Original Listing

    Number of comments: 12
    An alert reader brings to our attention a house in Rumson that is back on the market. Way back in '05 we highlighted this house as an example of how delusional some home sellers had become about how much they thought their homes were worth. Two years after originally' [...]
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    Posted: April 05, 2007, 6:12pm EDT
    by Little Silvered

  • Eastern Monmouth MLS at 4116

    Number of comments: 14
    At this time last year there were 3509 homes on the Eastern Monmouth MLS.

    Inventories hit a record 4772 in September of 2006. [...]
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    Posted: March 28, 2007, 6:23pm EDT
    by Little Silvered

  • Sub Prime Problems Hit Local Bank

    Number of comments: 5
    "OceanFirst Financial Corp. said Monday it could be forced to buy back as much as $47 million in delinquent subprime real estate loans made last year by a mortgage subsidiary.

    Problems at the subsidiary, Columbia Home Loans LLC of Valhalla, N.Y., have already caused OceanFirst, which operates the largest" [...]
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    Posted: March 27, 2007, 6:37pm EDT
    by Little Silvered

  • Bad Day for Builders

    Number of comments: 3
    Tomorrow is going to be a bad day for home builders. Beazer's stock is down 15% in after hours trading.

    NEW YORK, March 27 (Reuters) - U.S. authorities are investigating the lending practices and some other dealings at Beazer Homes USA Inc. (BZH.N: Quote, Profile , Research), one' [...]
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    Posted: March 27, 2007, 6:34pm EDT
    by Little Silvered

  • Asbury Park Press Addresses Sub Prime Issues

    Number of comments: 11
    The APP has some article about the sub-prime mess and its effects on the local area. It's nice to see the APP jump on board. While the mainstream media is just waking up to the sub-prime problems, we took a look at this issue as far back as last' [...]
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    Posted: March 19, 2007, 7:03pm EDT
    by Little Silvered

  • "Deadline set for Kara plan"

    Number of comments: 193
    From the Asbury Park Press

    A U.S. bankruptcy judge has ruled that Kara Homes Inc. must come up with a reorganization plan within 30 days or begin to pay its secured creditors interest.

    Judge Michael B. Kaplan rejected Kara's argument that its business consisted of more than' [...]
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    Posted: March 17, 2007, 9:29am EDT
    by Little Silvered

  • But at Least Hoboken Did Well

    Number of comments: 7
    March 15 (Bloomberg) -- Toll Brothers Inc. Chief Executive Officer Robert Toll said the spring selling season has been ``pretty much a bust'' and he can't predict when the housing recovery will begin.

    ``When will the market rebound?'' Toll said at a conference in Las Vegas today. ``Who knows?' [...]
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    Posted: March 15, 2007, 8:28pm EDT
    by Little Silvered

  • "Eminent domain reform remained stalled..."

    Number of comments: 1
    "TRENTON -- Eminent domain reform remained stalled in the Senate Thursday, as the apparent standoff between an Essex County senator and Gloucester County lawmakers seemingly widened.

    On paper it seemed there was compromise, as the Senate Community and Urban Affairs Committee listed a merged substitute of two pieces of" [...]
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    Posted: March 15, 2007, 8:26pm EDT
    by Little Silvered

  • "Why Your Home Is Not the Investment You Think It Is"

    Number of comments: 2
    "Too many people rely on their home as their primary savings strategy. That's a mistake.

    Planning your retirement? Don't bet the house on it.

    Your home means a lot of things to you, most of them good. Your home gives comfort and protection to you and your family," [...]
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    Posted: March 15, 2007, 8:23pm EDT
    by Little Silvered

  • Inventory tops 4000

    Number of comments: 7
    The MLS for Eastern Monmouth says inventories are 4004. Although the market is supposedly stronger according to anecdotal accounts, it is clear that we are going into the spring selling season with record inventories for our area. Meanwhile, in other parts of the country, it looks like some markets are [...]
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    Posted: March 12, 2007, 9:29pm EDT
    by Little Silvered

  • Less Blogging

    Number of comments: 11
    Unfortuneatly my ability to blog has been curtailed just as things are getting interesting. Also, since the other blogs have done a great job, such as Grims Site, covering other markets, I've tried to limit my postings to info that is only pertinent to the Jersey Shore. As a' [...]
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    Posted: March 01, 2007, 6:40pm EST
    by Little Silvered

  • It's Going to be Hard to Get a Mortgage

    Number of comments: 23
    HARTFORD, Conn. (AP) -- Homeowners with troubled credit histories are finding it harder to get mortgages or refinance homes because softening in the housing market is making lenders less likely to handle riskier loans.

    Several lenders of subprime mortgages - used primarily for home equity loans and for people [...]
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    Posted: February 25, 2007, 9:28am EST
    by Little Silvered

  • Bubble Info Here

    Number of comments: 18
    Since my blogging has been slow lately, it probably worth taking a look at the Seeking Alpha Website for relevant housing bubble commentary. Here is the link to Seeking Alpha


    "Judy Weil submits: Here's our summary of articles and data points on the housing market. It's" [...]
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    Posted: February 22, 2007, 8:53pm EST
    by Little Silvered

  • No More Credit; No More Price Gains

    Number of comments: 23
    "America's riskiest mortgages are set to pop. Where will the shrapnel land?"

    The Economist

    "LAST March, ResMAE, a mortgage lender catering to risky borrowers, cut the ribbon on its new headquarters in Brea, California. The sprawling, 135,000-square-foot building dwarfed the company's 458 local employees. But it fitted the" [...]
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    Posted: February 17, 2007, 10:19am EST
    by Little Silvered

  • Housing Construction Plunges

    Number of comments: 5
    WASHINGTON — Housing construction plunged to the lowest level in nearly a decade last month as the housing industry continued to struggle with a severe slowdown.

    Meanwhile, wholesale prices dropped by 0.6 percent in January, the biggest amount in three months, providing fresh evidence that inflation pressures are easing.
    [...]
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    Posted: February 17, 2007, 10:16am EST
    by Little Silvered

  • 3928 Houses on the MLS

    Number of comments: 10
    Inventories are probably going to hit the 4000 mark in a week or two. Anecdotally, it sounds like houses are moving faster now than they were a few months ago. I would attribute this to sellers finally lowering their prices. I've seen some meaningful price reductions since the start of' [...]
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    Posted: February 14, 2007, 9:57pm EST
    by Little Silvered

  • Too Many Banks

    This article is only marginally real estate related, however, it brings up some good points. The article points out the proliferation of bank branches in many downtown areas of NJ. I've noticed this is Red Bank, Chatham, Hoboken, and other "downtown" areas in the state. While I believe banks have' [...]
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    Posted: February 11, 2007, 9:54am EST
    by Little Silvered

  • More Sub Prime Problems

    Feb. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Shares of U.S. mortgage lenders plunged after New Century Financial Corp. and HSBC Holdings Plc said losses from bad home loans are piling up faster than they expected.

    The stock of Irvine, California-based New Century fell $10.92, or 36 percent, to $19.24 in New York [...]
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    Posted: February 11, 2007, 9:50am EST
    by Little Silvered

  • It's Not Over Yet

    Number of comments: 17
    WASHINGTON — Housing is proving to be one of the biggest wild cards in the economy in 2007 as analysts are deeply divided about whether the worst in the downturn is over or there is much more pain to go.

    Only 9% of economists say the housing decline ended [...]
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    Posted: February 05, 2007, 7:18pm EST
    by Little Silvered

  • "Spring Thaw"

    Number of comments: 9
    "It's the dead of winter -- a slower-than-slow time in the real estate world.

    But a recent open house in the tony hamlet of Short Hills drew so many people that even the listing agent, Howard Bunn of Keller Williams Realty in Summit, was left scratching his head.
    [...]
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    Posted: February 04, 2007, 5:20pm EST
    by Little Silvered

  • "Average increase in value for setting taxes was 209 percent"

    LONG BRANCH — City property owners this week finished receiving their new assessments, all of which are increasing as a result of the city's "vibrant" real estate market, said an official who oversaw the municipal property review.

    "Long Branch did very well in the last few years with the [...]
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    Posted: February 03, 2007, 1:56pm EST
    by Little Silvered

  • Sub Prime is Getting Crushed



    Sub prime mortgages are experincing a record number of defaults, which is evidenced by the chart above. (Go here to see exactly what the chart represents.) In only the past two days, the index has found another leg down and it does not [...]
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    Posted: January 27, 2007, 9:37am EST
    by Little Silvered

  • Otteau Report on the Shore

    "A huge loss in high-paying private sector jobs in New Jersey could affect home sales along the shore while a corresponding rise in government jobs is also bad for the housing market because it drives up property taxes.

    Those conclusions come from Jeffrey Otteau, whose Otteau Valuation Group Inc. [...]
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    Posted: January 27, 2007, 9:14am EST
    by Little Silvered

  • "It's by sheer luck Kara Homes went bankrupt.''

    "EDISON — Township officials plan to borrow up to $15 million to be used at a bankruptcy

    auction in an effort to buy 27 acres of land Edison hopes to preserve as open space.



    The tract, off of Woodland Avenue in north Edison, was owned by the now-bankrupt Kara Homes, an East [...]
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    Posted: January 26, 2007, 6:37am EST
    by Little Silvered

  • "Correction still unfolding"

    For all of the REALTOR® talk about the real estate market finding a bottom, I don't see much agreement from home builders. Home builder CEOs in the past week and a half, including Beazer, Centex, Meritage and Ryland are all saying that they don't see a bottom yet.





    snip...



    [The company [...]
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    Posted: January 25, 2007, 6:27pm EST
    by Little Silvered

  • Big Jump In Listings this Week

    ...and especially year-over-year.



    The MLS for Eastern Monmouth is now at 3852 up from 3777 last week. In the same week last year there were 2975 houses for sale in Eastern Monmouth County.



    Anecdotally, it looks like many of the houses that were delisted before the holidays seem to be making [...]
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    Posted: January 24, 2007, 8:42pm EST
    by Little Silvered

  • It's Cheaper to Rent

    OCEAN CITY — Fewer people may be buying a piece of the shore, but more are renting part of it.



    Real estate businesses are reporting a surge in rentals even as home sales decline along the coast. An increase in rentals as high as 40 percent has been recorded by some [...]
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    Posted: January 23, 2007, 9:11pm EST
    by Little Silvered

  • 2007 NJ Consumer Expectations

    TRENTON — Half of New Jersey consumers expect their household will do the same as or worse financially than last year, and state residents are nearly as bearish about business conditions this year, a survey finds.



    The fifth annual poll by Fairleigh Dickinson University's Silbermann College of Business finds 47 percent [...]
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    Posted: January 22, 2007, 9:00pm EST
    by Little Silvered

  • Another Downgrade

    NEW YORK (Standard & Poor's)
    Jan. 22, 2007--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services today lowered its rating on class B-2 from ACE Securities Corp. Home Equity Loan Trust Series 2005-SL1 to 'B' from 'BB+' and placed it on CreditWatch with negative implications (see list). The lowered rating and CreditWatch placement [...]
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    Posted: January 22, 2007, 8:56pm EST
    by Little Silvered

  • Hovnanian Need Less Space

    Hovnanian "the publicly-traded homebuilder that last year moved its corporate headquarters to the heart of Red Bank from Middletown, is scaling back its ambitions in the borough, according to a published report."



    Full Story from Redbankgreen. [...]
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    Posted: January 21, 2007, 10:28am EST
    by Little Silvered

  • Listen to Wayno

    Wayne Nef says....



    "Again, I would not join in to the rally at this point, I believe this is a dead cat bounce. Once momentum starts to wane I would look to enter short positions across a basket of these stocks since I believe this downturn has further to go. Absorbtion [...]
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    Posted: January 18, 2007, 9:35pm EST
    by Little Silvered

  • 3777 Listings This Week on the MLS

    Last week the count was 3749.

    One thing I've noticed over the past few weeks is a number of furniture companies or stores going under. Nationally, one of the bigger furniture makers to seek chapter 11 proctection recently was Rowe Furniture.

    Locally though, I noticed that [...]
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    Posted: January 17, 2007, 7:24pm EST
    by Little Silvered

  • Kara Gets Replacement Loan

    TRENTON — A judge today allowed Kara Homes Inc. to replace a $2.6 million loan from an investment bank with one borrowed from a hedge fund, and he will decide later this month whether an additional $2.4 million can go to the beleaguered home builder.



    Kara will use the $2.6 million [...]
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    Posted: January 16, 2007, 9:32pm EST
    by Little Silvered

  • "Real Estate Will Underperform Inflation for Decades"

    Snip...



    "If the last 100 years are any indication of the future, expectations of future price appreciation are not a legitimate reason to buy real estate. A large percentage of the current buyers in the real estate boom of the 2000s are buying based on future price appreciation. Unfortunately, this means [...]
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    Posted: January 16, 2007, 6:48pm EST
    by Little Silvered

  • I'm Thinking of a New Pricing Model

    When I buy my next house, I'm thinking of going straight to the listing agent and not bothering with hiring my own Realtor. Ideally, if the listing agent wants to get a transaction done, they will have room to cut their commission since there won't be a split.



    What I was [...]
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    Posted: January 14, 2007, 10:40am EST
    by Little Silvered

  • Realtors Turn In Licenses

    From Today's Asbury Park Press"With home sales down about 20 percent in Monmouth and Ocean counties, real estate agencies are cutting expenses and diversifying their businesses. And as the business gets more competitive, some agents are deciding not to renew their licenses."



    snip...



    "Since the industry's revenue comes from commissions, when sales [...]
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    Posted: January 14, 2007, 10:15am EST
    by Little Silvered

  • Old Listings are New Again

    [New Listing! (Sort Of)

    Agents are pulling houses off the market and then presenting them as new offerings



    Real estate agent Ross Simone wasn't attracting any potential buyers for a house in Mechanicsville, Md., that had sat on the market for months, so last November he took action. [...]
     | Rate | Archive
    Posted: January 13, 2007, 12:13pm EST
    by Little Silvered

  • Sub Prime Index Continues to Tumble

    This graph shows the price movement of an index that consists of pools of sub-prime mortages. What is essentially shows is that the market for sub-prime mortages expects a higher rate of defaults. (The lower the price of the index, the less probability 100% of the principal [...]
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    Posted: January 11, 2007, 6:57pm EST
    by Little Silvered

  • 3749 Homes on the MLS

    Last week the count was 3655. I'm guessing listing are going to shoot past 4,000 after the superbowl. Given all the nice weather we have been having, I think I would list my house now if I planned on selling. [...]
     | Rate | Archive
    Posted: January 10, 2007, 7:30pm EST
    by Little Silvered

  • Asbury Park Press Internet Poll, or Something

    The Asbury Park Press has the following text on their website (see below). In classic APP fashion, it does not appear to link to anything. If someone could find the link, please tell me where it is.



    "What's ailing the real estate market?

    Are mortgage rates too high? Home prices too high? [...]

     | Rate | Archive
    Posted: January 09, 2007, 8:26pm EST
    by Little Silvered

  • Local Bank Enters the Home Building Business

    Magyar Bank is publicly traded. Ticker = MGYR.

    TRENTON — Kara Homes can sell four of its developments at an auction to repay one of its lenders, Magyar Bank, a judge ruled today.

    The decision by U.S. Bankruptcy Court Judge Michael B. Kaplan could set the stage [...]
     | Rate | Archive
    Posted: January 08, 2007, 7:14pm EST
    by Little Silvered

  • Listings are Heading Back Up

    Looking at the MLS this morning for Eastern Monmouth County, the number of listings went to 3707 from 3655 on Wednesday. It looks like the end of the year de-lisiting cycle may have ended and people are putting their houses back on the market again after the holidays.



    Advice for people [...]
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    Posted: January 06, 2007, 11:45am EST
    by Little Silvered

  • Report from Cape May

    CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE — Nearly 30 percent fewer properties were bought and sold in Cape May County last year compared with 2005, confirming a definite cooling in a previously hot housing market.

    More than 8,300 properties changed hands in 2006, a dip of about 3,500 from the previous year.

    [...]

     | Rate | Archive
    Posted: January 05, 2007, 7:16pm EST
    by Little Silvered

  • Moving the Kara Thread to the Top

    Use this thread to discuss Kara Homes.





    Here is the previous post. [...]
     | Rate | Archive
    Posted: January 03, 2007, 7:24pm EST
    by Little Silvered

  • 3655 Homes on the MLS

    Last week there were 3870 listings. Looking at last year's figures, inventory declined every week between the middle of November and the middle of January. We'll see in a few weeks if the pattern holds this year. [...]
     | Rate | Archive
    Posted: January 03, 2007, 7:17pm EST
    by Little Silvered

  • Jersey Foreclosure Info

    "Rising foreclosure rates in New Jersey are likely to remain on the upswing in 2007, but experts say the odds are slim that the increases will signal a crisis for the state’s housing market or its economy.

    For the first 11 months of 2006, home mortgage foreclosures in the state [...]

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    Posted: January 02, 2007, 7:16pm EST
    by Little Silvered

  • Mortgage Broker Dirty Tricks

    CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Brian Diez, a former military man, entered the mortgage business after a career as a stockbroker, figuring the field would offer him an altruistic benefit -- helping families buy their first homes. He learned quickly, however, that not every one of his fellow brokers had their clients' [...]
     | Rate | Archive
    Posted: January 02, 2007, 12:07pm EST
    by Little Silvered

  • APP Article

    From the Asbury Park Press "Home Sweet Home"



    [Despite the recent fluctuations in real estate prices and sale prices that have fallen short of sellers' expectations, homeownership has proved to be a good long-term investment, financial experts agree.

    Buying a home is the largest investment most people will ever make, said Shrikant [...]

     | Rate | Archive
    Posted: January 01, 2007, 7:30pm EST
    by Little Silvered

  • Update on Red Bank House Flip

    Redbankgreen has been watching an attempted house flip in Red Bank for the past few months. An update is provided.



    "Remember that attempt to flip a house on Madison Avenue we told you about in June?

    Well, the house remains unsold 18 months after an investor bought it, at [...]

     | Rate | Archive
    Posted: December 29, 2006, 5:51pm EST
    by Little Silvered

  • 3870 Listings on the Eastern Monmouth MLS

    Last week the count was 4006.



    I predict listings will resume an upward trajectory about the third week of January. After all, the Spring selling season begins right after the Super Bowl if you ask a REALTOR®. [...]
     | Rate | Archive
    Posted: December 28, 2006, 4:55pm EST
    by Little Silvered

  • Past Crashes

    A Brief, Superficial, and Arbitrary History of Property-Price Collapses "The Anderson Forecast team at UCLA might restore one’s hope that academic economists fulfill a productive function. Having disparaged the California housing boom through its ascent, a springtime presentation by one of its economists predicted the swoon that has come to pass. [...]
     | Rate | Archive
    Posted: December 28, 2006, 4:51pm EST
    by Little Silvered

  • Gloating Renters

    Snip...



    [Among all the defiant renters, few roar louder than Killelea, who pays $2,350 a month to rent a snug, two-bedroom craftsman house near Stanford University in Menlo Park, Calif. He figures it would cost him $7,000 a month in mortgage payments and taxes if he owned it.



    Most mornings, he sits [...]
     | Rate | Archive
    Posted: December 26, 2006, 9:24pm EST
    by Little Silvered

  • Now You Have to Register to Comment

    As a result of a number of infantile personal and denile of service attacks I am going to require that posters to the comment section register. Hopefully, once all of the idiots are scared away, I can resume anonymous posting again. [...]
     | Rate | Archive
    Posted: December 23, 2006, 2:05pm EST
    by Little Silvered

  • Kara is Looking for $40 Million

    BY MICHAEL L. DIAMOND

    BUSINESS WRITER

    Kara Homes Inc. is seeking a $40 million loan from Bear Stearns to help it build or finish building at least some of the 300 homes that were not constructed or left unfinished when the home builder filed for bankruptcy more than two months [...]

     | Rate | Archive
    Posted: December 22, 2006, 10:10am EST
    by Little Silvered

  • Report from PA; NJ Buyers Mentioned

    snip...



    "Experts have said the rate of home appreciation in the Valley was unsustainable. The average home price for 2005 was a record $207,000, up 12.5 percent from 2004, according to statistics from the Lehigh Valley Association of Realtors. It was the housing market's best year ever and the third consecutive [...]
     | Rate | Archive
    Posted: December 21, 2006, 12:13pm EST
    by Little Silvered

  • Brick is the Safest BIg Town

    "This small city near the Jersey shore recorded the lowest rate of violent crime of any town of 75,000 residents or more, according to Morgan Quitno Press, an independent research publisher in Lawrence, Kansas, which used FBI statistics in its analysis. " [...]
     | Rate | Archive
    Posted: December 21, 2006, 11:25am EST
    by Little Silvered

  • Eastern Monmouth MLS at 4006

    On November 29, the count was 4280. [...]
     | Rate | Archive
    Posted: December 20, 2006, 6:16pm EST
    by Little Silvered

  • RedBankGreen Covers the Hovnanian Debacle

    RedBankGreen has a write up about Hovnanian's earnings report. Needless to say, the results were pretty bad and the outlook for 2007 is worse than originally expected. Do any long time Shore residents remember a story from about the early 90s involving a Hovnanian owned yacht, a fire and a 20,000 [...]
     | Rate | Archive
    Posted: December 19, 2006, 8:19pm EST
    by Little Silvered

  • "Sellers employ incentives to avoid cutting prices"

    "There was a time not so long ago when houses in Montclair would get five, 10, as many as 20 offers at prices $100,000, $200,000, even $400,000 above what the seller was asking. McMansions in Middlesex County and high-rises in Hoboken couldn't be built fast enough, fetch ing multiple offers [...]
     | Rate | Archive
    Posted: December 19, 2006, 8:15pm EST
    by Little Silvered
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