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  • Health Care and 2010

    The political repercussions for Congressional Democrats of not passing a health care bill could be severe. Our newest national survey finds that Democrats lead 46-38 on the generic Congressional ballot. But asked how they would vote if no health care bill is passed respondents split 40-40 between saying they would [...]
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    Posted: November 23, 2009, 10:18am EST

  • Sunday Morning Roundup

    -Does Barack Obama have a midwestern problem? 52% of voters there disapproved of him on our national poll this week, by far his worst performance in any region. A new Des Moines Register poll this morning finds him under 50 in Iowa, as did Quinnipiac in Ohio [...]
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    Posted: November 22, 2009, 10:57am EST

  • NC Democrats' Senior Problem

    A majority of voters under the age of 65 in North Carolina like the job Barack Obama's doing as President. They say they'll vote for an unnamed Democrat by a 42-41 margin over Richard Burr, plan to support Democrats by a 47-41 spread for the legislature and also plan to' [...]
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    Posted: November 20, 2009, 2:45pm EST

  • Looking back on Missouri's Governors

    Could John Ashcroft make a return to public office in the future, perhaps as a candidate for the Senate or Governor in 2012? It seems like a far fetched possibility but Missouri voters may be somewhat open to it. Ashcroft came out on top of our newest poll asking folks [...]
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    Posted: November 20, 2009, 1:59pm EST

  • Monthly 2012 Numbers

    Barack Obama's still leading all of his top potential opponents for 2012, but with his approval rating nationally below 50% for the first time his margins against a couple of them have dropped below what he won against John McCain last fall.

    For the eighth month in a row [...]
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    Posted: November 20, 2009, 10:43am EST

  • Missouri Approvals

    The second part of our Missouri poll looks at the approval ratings of the state's top politicians:

    -Jay Nixon. It's been a pretty successful first year for the state's new Governor. 42% of voters approve of the job he's doing to 25% disapproving. In a time when the popularity [...]
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    Posted: November 19, 2009, 3:28pm EST

  • ACORN

    Losing NY-23 candidate Doug Hoffman became the latest in an increasingly long line of conservative politicians to blame his problems on ACORN yesterday despite the complete lack of evidence the organization played any role in his defeat.

    The Republican base is with him though. PPP's newest national survey finds [...]
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    Posted: November 19, 2009, 12:15pm EST

  • Deep Divisions on Obama

    For our monthly look at Barack Obama's approval rating nationally we decided to have voters give him a letter grade in addition to a straight up or down vote on his performance.

    Overall Obama's 'GPA' comes out to a 2.1, somewhere between a C and a C+. That's a [...]
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    Posted: November 19, 2009, 11:59am EST

  • Purgason's Hope

    Chuck Purgason is a long, longggggggggggg shot for the Senate nomination in Missouri but there is one thing he has on his side: Congressional Republicans are not that popular even with the GOP base in the state. Only 44% have a favorable opinion of them with 38% seeing them unfavorably. [...]
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    Posted: November 19, 2009, 11:05am EST

  • Looking at NC Republicans

    There is a movement among some North Carolina Republicans to close the party's primaries to independents because they think allowing them to vote results in excessively moderate candidates being nominated. But is that claim really true?

    Independents are often thought of as being straight down the middle voters who [...]
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    Posted: November 19, 2009, 10:09am EST

  • Close in North Carolina

    It looks like North Carolina is headed for a pretty competitive election year in 2010.

    PPP's newest round of generic ballot polling for legislative and Congressional races in the state finds tight margins on both fronts. By a 45-44 spread voters say they plan to vote Republican for the [...]
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    Posted: November 18, 2009, 3:11pm EST

  • Lincoln Trouble

    Blanche Lincoln's approval rating in Arkansas' 2nd Congressional District, where Barack Obama had his strongest performance in the state last year, is just 27%.

    55% of voters disapprove of the job she's doing. It's predictable that 70% of Republicans give her poor marks but more surprising is that independents' [...]
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    Posted: November 18, 2009, 11:43am EST

  • Tight in Missouri

    When PPP polled the Missouri Senate race in January Robin Carnahan led by one point. Fast forward ten months and nothing has changed. Carnahan leads Roy Blunt 43-42.

    It's a good sign for Carnahan that her status hasn't worsened as things have gone sour in general for the Democratic' [...]
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    Posted: November 18, 2009, 10:23am EST

  • Republicans and 2012

    I was interested to see David Plouffe comment that the 2012 Republican Presidential nominee might come from outside the roster of the current top contenders. I don't know if it will or not, but I think for the GOP to win next time around it will have to be.[...]
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    Posted: November 17, 2009, 6:43am EST

  • Missouri Preview

    The Missouri Senate race, where we'll release numbers tomorrow, is a great prism into the current political climate.

    44% of independents in the state have an unfavorable opinion of Roy Blunt to just 23% viewing him favorably. Robin Carnahan also has poor, but somewhat better, numbers with that group-' [...]
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    Posted: November 17, 2009, 5:23am EST

  • Lincoln's Tough Position

    We'll release the second part of our Arkansas-2 poll tomorrow but here's the key finding: while 78% of Democrats in the district approve of the job Barack Obama is doing, 75% like Vic Snyder, and 61% like Mark Pryor only 43% express support for Blanche Lincoln.

    That's some pretty' [...]
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    Posted: November 17, 2009, 5:08am EST

  • Snyder in trouble

    Last year Republicans didn't even bother to run a candidate against Democratic Congressman Vic Snyder in Arkansas. Now with the political climate turning in the wrong direction for Democrats nationally, and particularly in the Natural State, it looks like he may be in for the toughest fight of his career' [...]
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    Posted: November 15, 2009, 9:50pm EST

  • Perdue back up to 30

    For the first time since June Bev Perdue's approval rating is out of the 20s. 30% of North Carolinians express support for her work this month with 49% disapproving and 22% unsure.

    The positive movement for Perdue is largely a result of the Democratic base warming back up to [...]
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    Posted: November 15, 2009, 9:15pm EST

  • Some twists in Congressional favorability

    It's a commonly accepted fact that Congressional Democrats are unpopular but Congressional Republicans are even more unpopular.

    That's true but it shouldn't be taken as an indication that Democrats are going to be fine in 2010 because there's a pretty significant group of the electorate that dislikes both parties [...]
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    Posted: November 14, 2009, 1:49pm EST

  • Etheridge

    This may seem counter intuitive but the news that Bob Etheridge is not running for the Senate is good news for Democrats.

    At this point the chances of a Republican taking over his open Congressional seat are better than the chances of his beating Richard Burr would have been.
    [...]
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    Posted: November 13, 2009, 4:15pm EST

  • Looking at Arkansas-2

    We're going to be releasing polling looking at both the House race and the Senate race in Arkansas-2 next week.

    That leads to an obvious question: why AR-2?

    It's a district where there hasn't been a real strong challenge to Democratic Congressman Vic Snyder in a while. But' [...]
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    Posted: November 13, 2009, 1:37pm EST

  • Obama on the rise in North Carolina

    Barack Obama's approval rating in North Carolina is headed in the right direction this month. An equal 47% of the state's voters approve and disapprove of his job performance after PPP's monthly surveys from August through October had found his numbers in the red.

    Obama's climb in our numbers [...]
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    Posted: November 13, 2009, 10:16am EST

  • Looking toward 2010

    I had a couple of theories about why Democratic voter turnout was so bad last week besides the party nominating bad candidates.

    One was the frustration theory: we got Congress back in 2006, we got Barack in in 2008, but things aren't changing enough. Getting out and voting for' [...]
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    Posted: November 12, 2009, 4:33pm EST

  • Some good news for Dems from Civitas

    There is some good news for Democrats in the latest Civitas poll:

    -Bev Perdue's approval is now a 43/49 spread, compared to 29/63 in their previous survey. That's a 28 point gain in her net approval. Our newest round of numbers on her, which we'll release next week, also' [...]
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    Posted: November 12, 2009, 3:39pm EST

  • Digging Deeper on Independents

    We all know that a big part of the Republican successes in New Jersey and Virginia last week had to do with Chris Christie and Bob McDonnell's ability to win over independent voters.

    I want to go a little deeper than that though, and talk about the differences between' [...]
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    Posted: November 12, 2009, 12:18pm EST

  • Same old, same old on NC-Senate

    Richard Burr's status this month is the same as it's been ever since Roy Cooper decided not to challenge him- his numbers are mediocre but he leads a bevy of little known potential challengers by double digit margins.

    Burr's approval this month comes in at 40% with 31% of' [...]
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    Posted: November 12, 2009, 10:36am EST

  • GOP disunity overblown?

    I think Republican unity problems of late have been extremely overblown.

    There's no doubt NY-23 was a big old mess, and if that's replicated on a broader scale next year the GOP will have some problems. But I think that whole charade was a once in a lifetime thing.
    [...]
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    Posted: November 11, 2009, 3:26pm EST

  • Vote!

    Voting is now open for who we should include with Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, and Mitt Romney on our next 2012 poll.

    The choices are Rudy Giuliani, Rush Limbaugh, George Pataki, Ron Paul, and John Thune.

    Thanks for all the good suggestions. I didn't put Jeb Bush, Newt' [...]
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    Posted: November 11, 2009, 2:15pm EST

  • Mixed messages on McCrory

    Pat McCrory is leaving office as Mayor of Charlotte with his popularity intact. But that doesn't mean voters in the city are yearning for him to run for Governor again.

    McCrory's final approval rating is 59%, with only 26% disapproving. He has the approval of 81% of Republicans and [...]
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    Posted: November 11, 2009, 10:51am EST

  • Some key words in the Cunningham non-candidacy letter

    Chris Cillizza suggests this morning that despite Cal Cunningham's announcement Monday night that he will not run for the Senate, he may yet be recruited into the race by Senate Democrats if Bob Etheridge is a no go.

    I don't think so. These to me were clearly the [...]
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    Posted: November 11, 2009, 10:33am EST

  • Some bad news for Democrats

    For the most part this year our polling has found that there aren't a lot of Obama voters straying when it comes to the 2010 races. At the same time most of our polling hasn't been of likely voters, and the generic Congressional ballot polling we did of the New [...]
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    Posted: November 10, 2009, 2:48pm EST

  • GOP controlled by conservatives everywhere

    I heard from several folks that they were surprised the Republican electorate in Maine is so dominated by conservatives. Based on our polling data this year though I doubt there is any state where an overwhelming majority of Republicans are not conservatives.

    In the 14 states where we've broken' [...]
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    Posted: November 10, 2009, 1:34pm EST

  • Taking suggestions

    Taking suggestions for two things:

    -Who should we include as the 4th Republican, along with Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, and Mitt Romney, on our monthly 2012 poll? We'll take nominations for about the next 24 hours and then put it to a vote. This could be a minor test' [...]
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    Posted: November 10, 2009, 11:19am EST

  • Tough future for Snowe as a Republican

    It looks like Olympia Snowe could have a pretty hard time getting nominated for another term in the Senate as a Republican.

    There are now more folks in her party who disapprove than approve of Snowe's job performance. 46% of GOP voters think she's doing a bad job to [...]
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    Posted: November 10, 2009, 10:30am EST

  • It's early but Booker looks good

    Almost every time in 2009 that we've polled on a politician for the first time and been surprised by the numbers it's been because that person is more unpopular than we expected. We are in a recession period for the popularity of politicians, and that's been par for the course.[...]
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    Posted: November 09, 2009, 2:09pm EST

  • Some interesting health care numbers

    Is it possible that the health care issue has gotten Republicans/conservatives so fired up that they're going to be more energized to go and try to vote out Democrats next year whether a substantive bill actually passes or not?

    We put that theory to the test in New Jersey' [...]
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    Posted: November 09, 2009, 11:58am EST

  • Vote on where we poll

    One thing I want to say up front before getting to this month's options is that I don't really believe in doing blended primary/general election polls when an election is less than a year away. It's really two entirely different electorates so to do both well you have to conduct' [...]
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    Posted: November 09, 2009, 11:20am EST

  • Obama and 2009

    There's been a seemingly endless debate this week about whether New Jersey and Virginia were Barack Obama's fault.

    But I've found the data point that ends the argument for me.

    On April 15th Obama's national approval rating in Gallup was 63%. A Rasmussen poll that day showed Bob [...]
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    Posted: November 07, 2009, 10:10am EST

  • Moving Forward

    Now that the election's over we can poll something other than Virginia and New Jersey! Please make your suggestions on where you'd like us to poll next week in the comments and I'll pick some finalists and let you vote next week.

    The above is for statewide races, we've [...]
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    Posted: November 06, 2009, 2:11pm EST

  • Unbelievable

    I've been pretty sure the Republicans will get back control of the North Carolina legislature next year but now I'm not underestimating their chances to defeat themselves.

    Just got an e-mail from the party that they're bringing in Doug Hoffman to speak at their Hall of Fame dinner in' [...]
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    Posted: November 05, 2009, 3:53pm EST

  • Some closing thoughts on Virginia turnout

    Our early August poll in Virginia found that 60% of McCain voters and 42% of Obama voters were coming out for Governor this year. We surmised Creigh Deeds would have to get that up to 55% of Obama voters to have any chance.

    If the exit polls were [...]
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    Posted: November 05, 2009, 3:27pm EST

  • Reviewing New Jersey

    The story of what happened over the course of the New Jersey Governor's race is Chris Christie's share of the Republican vote and lead with independents plummeting...and then recovering in the end.

    On our first New Jersey poll in late June 93% of Republican said they were going to [...]
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    Posted: November 05, 2009, 2:34pm EST

  • Deeds' biggest mistake

    The biggest tactical error of the year for the 2009 elections was Creigh Deeds' over emphasis on Bob McDonnell's thesis.

    By the end of September it was clear to us that his attacks were not having a meaningful impact. Among voters who had made up their minds during that [...]
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    Posted: November 04, 2009, 11:35am EST

  • Good election for IVR

    As Taegan Goddard has already noted, last night was a good one for IVR polling.

    In New Jersey the pollster.com trend showed Jon Corzine leading Chris Christie 42-39 on live interviewer polls. On automated polls Christie led Corzine 44-41. There was never an automated poll showing Corzine in [...]
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    Posted: November 04, 2009, 11:03am EST

  • The 2009 race in North Carolina

    In the end the 2009 elections in North Carolina told us very little about 2010.

    There were good signs for Republicans:

    -Energized conservatives turned out in large numbers for the Wake County School Board races, electing all of their candidates and defeating an incumbent Democratic Raleigh City Councilman [...]
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    Posted: November 04, 2009, 10:25am EST

  • Weird Night for PPP

    There's no beating around the bush about it- our poll in NY-23 was way off the mark. I made a poor judgment call by not just killing it when Scozzafava dropped out and then endorsed Owens. Like any pollster we will make mistakes, we will just try not to make [...]
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    Posted: November 04, 2009, 1:04am EST

  • NY-23 Republicans

    One of the groups of voters that's gotten the most attention this cycle is the Republicans in NY-23. Here are some of our findings about them:

    -First off they have a very dim view of Congressional Republicans- 43% view them unfavorably to just 37% having a positive opinion of [...]
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    Posted: November 03, 2009, 4:44pm EST

  • Palin has bad numbers in NY-23

    Sarah Palin's not getting elected President in 2012.

    We had plenty of data points to tell us that already but I find it fascinating that a plurality of voters have an unfavorable opinion of her even in NY-23.

    43% view her favorably to 44% negative. This is in [...]
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    Posted: November 03, 2009, 2:00pm EST

  • Obama and today's elections

    Here's something to consider when talking about Barack Obama and the results of today's elections.

    In New Jersey only 75% of voters who approve of Obama's job performance plan to vote for Jon Corzine. And in NY-23 only 71% of people who think Obama's doing a good job plan [...]
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    Posted: November 03, 2009, 10:07am EST

  • GOP unity, support from independents key today

    We think tonight will be very good for Republicans.

    Two of the main reasons for that are superior party unity and pretty overwhelming support from independents.

    In NY-23 despite the presence more or less of two Republican candidates on the ballot, Doug Hoffman is winning 71% of [...]
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    Posted: November 03, 2009, 8:58am EST

  • Lassiter takes small lead

    John Lassiter leads Anthony Foxx 50-46 in PPP's final survey of the Charlotte Mayoral race.

    If Lassiter does indeed end up as the winner it will be his overwhelming support among white voters that made it possible. He leads 68-29 with them, up from 63-29 a week ago. Those [...]
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    Posted: November 02, 2009, 2:14pm EST

  • Chapel Hill too close to call

    The race to be Chapel Hill's next Mayor is too close to call. Matt Czajkowski leads Mark Kleinschmidt 45-44, a difference that suffice it to say is within the margin of error.

    The key finding in the poll underscoring how divided the community is headed into election day is [...]
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    Posted: November 02, 2009, 11:49am EST

  • Chapel Hill and Charlotte...

    Not going to get to Chapel Hill and Charlotte tonight. Chapel Hill should be out by noon tomorrow, we need to do some more interviews in Charlotte but we'll try to get it out by early afternoon.

    Thanks for staying up with us. Unless Democrats really have an aversion' [...]
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    Posted: November 02, 2009, 2:02am EST

  • Republicans headed for a Virginia sweep

    Bob McDonnell leads Creigh Deeds 56-42 in PPP's final poll of the race.

    In a finding that may sum up what happened here 63% of voters in the state think McDonnell made a strong case for why he should be Governor while only 34% said the same of Deeds. [...]
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    Posted: November 02, 2009, 1:46am EST

  • Marriage still close in Maine

    Maine voters narrowly favor Question 1, which would reverse the state's law legalizing same sex marriage.

    At 51-47 it's within the margin of error but there has been slight movement in support of the question since a PPP poll two weeks ago showed it knotted up at 48.

    [...]
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    Posted: November 02, 2009, 12:14am EST

  • Christie leads

    Chris Christie leads Jon Corzine 47-41 in PPP's final poll of the New Jersey Governor's race, with Chris Daggett at 11%.

    Corzine had pulled to within a point of Christie on our poll three weeks ago after trailing by as many as 14 points over the summer, but his [...]
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    Posted: November 01, 2009, 10:53pm EST

  • Hoffman leads big

    Doug Hoffman has a commanding lead in the special election for New York's 23rd Congressional District.

    In a three way contest with Democrat Bill Owens and Republican Dede Scozzafava Hoffman leads with 51% to 34% for Owens and 13% for Scozzafava. In a head to head contest with Owens [...]
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    Posted: November 01, 2009, 10:04pm EST

  • Tonight's Poll Schedule

    Roughly speaking:

    NY-23 around 10
    New Jersey around 11
    Maine around midnight
    Virginia around 1 AM
    Chapel Hill around 2 AM
    Charlotte around 3 AM [...]
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    Posted: November 01, 2009, 8:03pm EST

  • NY-23

    Why are your numbers in NY-23 so different from Siena and Research 2000?

    We're getting a lot of that today.

    Two main reasons:

    -We find, and were finding even before the Scozzafava dropout, that Hoffman has a much bigger lead with Republicans than those polls were showing.' [...]
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    Posted: November 01, 2009, 6:24pm EST

  • More NY-23 mess

    Man NY-23 is really a mess.

    Here are some interesting facts from our unweighted numbers so far:

    -In a three way contest Doug Hoffman leads Bill Owens by 19 points. In a two way contest Hoffman leads Owens by 15 points. So the Dede Scozzafava withdrawal and endorsement [...]
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    Posted: November 01, 2009, 3:42pm EST

  • NY-23 Polling Odyssey

    So this morning around 10 AM I started up our NY-23 poll and after a few hundred interviews it appeared that Doug Hoffman was now running away with it-unweighted numbers showed him at 45% to 26% for Bill Owens and 17% for Dede Scozzafava.

    Then came the news that [...]
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    Posted: October 31, 2009, 1:22pm EDT

  • Some hard numbers in Virginia and New Jersey

    Here are some hard numbers on turnout issues for Democrats in Virginia and New Jersey.

    Let's estimate 2,000,000 voters in Virginia. Our poll this week found the electorate there splitting 48-44 for McCain based on reported voting behavior for last year.

    That means 960,000 McCain voters and 880,000 [...]
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    Posted: October 30, 2009, 5:37pm EDT

  • Internal Party Frustration

    Liberal Democratic voters often express frustration that their Congressional leaders spend all of their time pandering to the right wing of the party. Conservative Republicans feel similarly about their folks worrying too much about appealing to the center- something that's playing itself out in NY-23 right now.

    (Note that [...]
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    Posted: October 30, 2009, 3:12pm EDT

  • Corzine and the 'Grudging Vote'

    Whether Jon Corzine gets reelected or not one thing is for sure: he is not a very popular dude.

    Our five New Jersey polls have found 37, 36, 33, 33, and 32 as his favorability ratings for an average of 34.1%.

    Let's just assume Chris Daggett ends up [...]
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    Posted: October 30, 2009, 11:37am EDT

  • Is NY-23 really that meaningful?

    I'm as riveted as any other political junkie by the race in NY-23, and we're doing a pretty comprehensive poll there this weekend, but I'm not sure that it really has any broader implications.

    The three way nature of the race is interesting, but it's only that way because' [...]
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    Posted: October 30, 2009, 10:54am EDT

  • The McCrory Effect

    Charlotte's a Democratic city but John Lassiter is hanging in there and one person he really owes for that is Pat McCrory.

    Last year George W. Bush was an anchor on Republican candidates across the country as he left office but McCrory's continuing popularity seems to be helping Lassiter [...]
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    Posted: October 29, 2009, 3:25pm EDT

  • What race are you most interested in?

    This weekend we'll be polling Virginia, New Jersey, NY-23, Maine, Charlotte, and Chapel Hill. The surveys will finish their field periods Sunday night and then we'll crunch the numbers for each poll and release them one by one until we finish them all sometime in the middle of the night.
    [...]
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    Posted: October 29, 2009, 12:00pm EDT

  • Rural Virginia

    Here is perhaps the most amazing stat on the Virginia Governor's race.

    This week last year we found Barack Obama trailing John McCain 63-31 with rural whites in Virginia.

    We have Creigh Deeds trailing Bob McDonnell 68-29 with that group.

    Obama, the black guy from Chicago, was [...]
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    Posted: October 29, 2009, 11:06am EDT

  • Independents

    One common theme in all of our polling this week is that Republicans are running up the score with independents. Bob McDonnell has a 59-34 lead over Creigh Deeds with them, John Lassiter is up 51-31 over Anthony Foxx in Charlotte, and Chris Christie has a 44-25 advantage on Jon [...]
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    Posted: October 28, 2009, 4:19pm EDT

  • New Jersey Polls

    In the time we've been polling nationally I've never seen a race where the IVR and live interviewer polls told two stories as different as the New Jersey Governor's race.

    All 9 IVR polls this month have shown Chris Christie in the lead. 6 out of the 9 live [...]
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    Posted: October 28, 2009, 1:56pm EDT

  • Obama and 2009

    For most of the general election campaign I've been saying that if the turnout patterns this year in Virginia were the same as last year in terms of their McCain/Obama spread the Creigh Deeds/Bob McDonnell race would be a tossup.

    That was true as recently as three weeks ago' [...]
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    Posted: October 28, 2009, 1:31pm EDT

  • Burgess leads in Charlotte

    While the race for Mayor of Charlotte may be too close to call the favorites for at least three of the four at large City Council seats appear pretty clear, with two incumbents and a former Councilman leading the way:

    Susan Burgess 17
    Patrick Cannon 15
    Edwin Peacock 13
    [...]
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    Posted: October 28, 2009, 11:00am EDT

  • Yankees favorites in NJ

    New Jersey voters are pulling for the Yankees in the World Series by a 50-33 margin, with virtually every demographic group in the state cheering for the American League champs.

    The Yankees are the choice of women, men, liberals, moderates, conservatives, Democrats, Republicans, Independents, Hispanics, whites, young people, and [...]
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    Posted: October 28, 2009, 10:28am EDT

  • The Obama Coalition in NJ and VA

    A lot of attention's been given to the likely decline in turnout among young voters and African Americans in Virginia and New Jersey. The other, possibly more serious, problem for Democrats is that even folks in those groups who are turning out aren't supporting Jon Corzine and Creigh Deeds all' [...]
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    Posted: October 27, 2009, 4:28pm EDT

  • Charlotte's tied

    With a week to go the race to be the next Mayor of Charlotte is all tied up. Anthony Foxx and John Lassiter are each at 45%.

    The ultimate winner of this race is going to be determined by who can get their people out to the polls, and [...]
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    Posted: October 27, 2009, 12:20pm EDT

  • McDonnell's lead grows

    Bob McDonnell has again expanded his lead in the race to be Virginia's next Governor and is now up 55-40 on Creigh Deeds. A week ago the contest stood at 52-40.

    There is some indication in the recent polls that Democratic voters are giving up on this race. At [...]
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    Posted: October 27, 2009, 10:55am EDT

  • Christie gets a little breathing room

    Chris Christie now leads Jon Corzine 42-38 in the race to be New Jersey's next Governor, a slight increase from our poll two weeks that showed his advantage at 40-39.

    Chris Daggett's candidacy appears to be having a major impact on this race. His support is steady at 13% [...]
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    Posted: October 27, 2009, 10:02am EDT

  • Virginia Poll Preview

    Our Virginia poll tomorrow is more bad news for Creigh Deeds, which is hardly news anymore.

    One thing I find interesting looking back over our last four polls is that the percentage of likely voters who are Democrats has fallen every time. This is the first race we've polled' [...]
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    Posted: October 26, 2009, 8:15pm EDT

  • New Jersey Poll Preview

    Some folks thought it was a little odd when Chris Christie went on the air with negative ads against independent candidate Chris Daggett a few weeks ago but it seems to have been a good idea.

    Two weeks ago Daggett's fav/unfav was 30/24. Now it's 31/36. And Daggett's negative [...]
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    Posted: October 26, 2009, 12:33pm EDT

  • Obama's numbers

    Here's an interesting little fact from our national poll this week:

    Barack Obama's approval rating with people who didn't vote for him is 14%.

    Barack Obama's disapproval rating with people who voted for him is 6%.

    So he's won over twice as many people as he's lost' [...]
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    Posted: October 24, 2009, 11:44am EDT

  • Deeds' Identity Problem

    Given the grumbling about Creigh Deeds' conservative leaning stances on some issues among many Virginia Democrats, you might be surprised to know that 46% of voters in the state think he's a liberal to 48% who think he's a moderate.

    Here's the problem though: conservatives think he's a liberal,' [...]
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    Posted: October 24, 2009, 11:14am EDT

  • Balloon Boy!

    Our newest national survey finds that Balloon Boy is not very popular. 24% of voters have an unfavorable opinion of him. Only 5% like him.

    He is particularly unpopular out west where his net favorability is -25. Maybe people there think he embarrassed their region.

    This is one [...]
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    Posted: October 23, 2009, 1:08pm EDT

  • A challenge for the GOP

    Republicans have a major identity problem. 35% of its voters think that their party in Congress is too liberal compared to only 20% who think it's too conservative, perhaps speaking to the exodus of moderates from the party in recent years. So the party base would be happier if it [...]
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    Posted: October 23, 2009, 12:43pm EDT

  • The Generic Ballot

    Voters are unhappy with both parties in Congress right now and that is opening the door for more third party candidates, like Doug Hoffman in NY-23, to perhaps have some success next year.

    49% of voters disapprove of the job Democrats in Congress are doing right now, to 37% [...]
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    Posted: October 23, 2009, 12:27pm EDT

  • Notes on Palin

    When it comes to the 2012 Presidential election, Republican voters might be their own worst enemies.

    That's because Sarah Palin continues to be by far the most popular candidate with the party's base. 72% have a favorable opinion of her, compared to just 56% for Mike Huckabee and 54% [...]
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    Posted: October 23, 2009, 10:45am EDT

  • Maine Wide Open

    The only thing that's clear about next year's race for Governor of Maine is that everything is unclear. The candidates aren't very well known and voters don't have a clear preference for which party they would like to see controlling the Governor's office.

    Generally speaking 30% of the voters [...]
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    Posted: October 22, 2009, 3:26pm EDT

  • Would Kaine do better?

    Virginia voters think their Governors should be allowed to run for reelection. But they wouldn't necessarily return the current one if they had that option.

    57% think the state's chief executive should be able to seek a second consecutive term with 35% opposed. Democrats are strongly in favor of' [...]
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    Posted: October 22, 2009, 2:27pm EDT

  • Turnout and 2010

    I've been talking ad nauseam perhaps about the fact that very few Obama voters are leaving the Democratic fold but that the party's main problem right now is one of engagement and motivation.

    Here's a perfect example from the national generic Congressional numbers we're releasing tomorrow:

    Only 6% [...]
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    Posted: October 22, 2009, 12:03pm EDT

  • Health Care and the 2010 Elections

    Here's a theory I'm going to test on our Virginia and New Jersey polls this weekend: Congressional Democrats put themselves at greater risk for next year by not passing a health care bill with a public option than by doing so.

    Republicans are already incredibly revved up about the' [...]
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    Posted: October 22, 2009, 11:16am EDT

  • Obama continues to lead 2012 contests

    Almost a year after his election as President, Barack Obama continues to lead his most likely 2012 rivals in hypothetical contests for reelection.

    Obama leads Mike Huckabee 47-43, Mitt Romney 48-40, Sarah Palin 52-40, and Tim Pawlenty 50-30.

    This is the seventh time PPP has conducted this poll [...]
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    Posted: October 22, 2009, 8:12am EDT

  • Snowe's Standing

    Following her vote last week to support a health care bill in the Senate Finance Committee Olympia Snowe finds herself a lot more popular with voters in the opposite party than with her own.

    70% of Democrats approve of her job performance while only 45% of Republicans do. The [...]
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    Posted: October 21, 2009, 2:03pm EDT

  • Last Call for Virginia, New Jersey

    Our Sunday night before the election Virginia and New Jersey polls aren't going to have much content other than the horse race so this weekend's round of surveys are your last chance to suggest questions that could help us better shed a light on what's going on in those contests.' [...]
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    Posted: October 21, 2009, 12:51pm EDT

  • Obama approval more of the same

    Barack Obama's approval rating in our national survey for October is 51%, the fifth month in a row it has fallen somewhere in the 50-52% range.

    The big picture on his numbers remains this: pretty much everyone (89%) who voted for him likes the job he's doing. Pretty much [...]
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    Posted: October 21, 2009, 12:11pm EDT

  • Thoughts on the Gingrich/ABC Poll

    Kind of an amusing little spat yesterday between Newt Gingrich and ABC Polling Director Gary Langer.

    The crux of it is this: ABC says only 20% of voters identify as Republicans, Gingrich says that's bunk and that most other pollsters tell a different story.

    The problem is [...]
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    Posted: October 21, 2009, 10:55am EDT

  • McDonnell pulling away

    Bob McDonnell has opened up a double digit lead over Creigh Deeds in his quest to be Virginia's next Governor. He now leads 52-40, up from 48-43 three weeks ago.

    McDonnell's standing is largely the result of two things: considerable support from independents and a disengaged Democratic electorate. With [...]
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    Posted: October 21, 2009, 10:12am EDT

  • Tomorrow's Virginia Poll

    For months our discussion of the Virginia Gubernatorial race has focused on the issue of enthusiasm- and the lack of it among Democratic voters.

    Here are some very telling numbers from the poll we'll be releasing tomorrow:

    -56% of Bob McDonnell voters are 'very excited' about casting their' [...]
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    Posted: October 20, 2009, 9:19pm EDT

  • Voters just don't get it

    Olympia Snowe's approval rating on health care with Democrats who support a public option: 70/15

    Olympia Snowe's approval rating on health care with Democrats who oppose a public option: 37/53

    Just more confirmation of my feeling that most voters have no clue when it comes to the health [...]
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    Posted: October 20, 2009, 4:09pm EDT

  • Broader Implications of NY-23

    Could the Doug Hoffman candidacy in NY-23 become a broader movement next year?

    We asked two forms of the generic Congressional ballot question on our national poll this week- one was the standard Democrat/Republican choice and the other was a Democrat/Republican/Independent or Third Party choice.

    Reflecting the disgust [...]
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    Posted: October 20, 2009, 1:39pm EDT

  • Tied in Maine

    Public opinion on Question 1 in Maine, which would reject the state's law allowing same sex couples to marry, is knotted up two weeks before election day. 48% of voters in the state support it and 48% oppose it.

    With most voters' minds made up the election is not' [...]
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    Posted: October 20, 2009, 10:13am EDT

  • The Rest of the Stuff

    Besides Maine we also have our Virginia and national polls coming out this week starting Wednesday. Here's the tentative schedule:

    Wednesday:

    -We'll have our newest Virginia Governor numbers. Do voters think Deeds is overplaying McDonnell's thesis? Is the electorate trending more Democratic or Republican? Those are some of' [...]
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    Posted: October 19, 2009, 3:13pm EDT
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